Love Letter Werewolf

[Xihirli]

Yeah, Ramsus is my gut feeling. Even if he were not trying to save AV from a definite lynch, it did look like insurance that he wouldn't get lynched by loading up on the largest wagon at the time.

Edit: Though there is no guarantee that Libro is not a wolf as well... or Xihirli, for that matter

You shouldn't lynch me.

[Ramsus]

So basically the arguments for lynching me seem to amount to "We should lynch Ramsus because he didn't do what a wolf would do no matter how we describe their thought process as a wolf".
Really guys? This is suspicious as heck that someone threw a vote on me with terrible logic, followed by nobody actually being able to argue with anything I say that shows what terrible logic it was and still voting for me anyway.
If the people voting for me aren't wolves, they sure don't have an interest in lynching actual wolves.

Xihirli, since I saved you yesterday, mind attempting to return the favor?

[Xihirli]

AvatarVecna threw himself on his sword-chuck. I wasn't in any danger.
Also Drow have no honor.

But Duneyrr genuinely arouses suspicion. Jumping on a wagon right in the middleish, offering a mostly unmemorable post which reinforced the current wagon as though content with it but not overly committed, and casually dropping in two possible wolves without reasoning - one of which I know to be town.
Tom is acting like normal and he provided real reasoning, at least as far as Day 2 is concerned. Duneyrr piggybacked.

[Duck999]

I'll join on Tom the Mime. I feel like the whole Rammus thing is huge WIFOM. Tom's vote seemed to be a very generic and short explanation, which isn't necessarily bad, but I feel like it wasn't really enough to go on at the time.

[Peebles]

Duck999 - I'm waiting to see how the Ramsus/Tom the Mime thing goes, see if any argument commits me one way or another.

[Murska]

I strongly agree on the Ramsus thing. The vote is there to push attention away from AV, the joke is there to ensure that if Ramsus is caught later we won't think to look at AV.

[Cuthalion]

Agree with Murska here. Ramsus. Looks subpar from timing/content.

[Logic]

I disagree with the Wolf-Ramsus theory.

Ramsus broke the 3-way tie away between Xihirli, AV, and Libro, when Xihirli would have been the one to get the noose. Normally, third on a wagon counter to a wolf is where wolves try to hide, so that gives Ramsus a tiny amount of pro-wolf points, but Xihirli is the lynchpin (pun intended) to Ramsus' wolf status. So I don't think Ramsus is a wolf unless Xihirli is also a wolf.

I think this voting pattern clears Libro (and somewhat confuses me why he wasn't the kill last night) but Ramsus could just as easily be a D1 clueless villager when he cast his vote, UNLESS Xihirli is also a wolf.

I'm voting for Tom the Mime for now, pending more evidence.

Note: I was the second vote on Libro that made it a 2-2-2 tie.

EDIT: More than 24 hours had elapsed between the second vote on Libro (mine) to Ramsus placing the third vote on Libro. I don't see how the timing is that suspicious.

[Ramsus]

Hey so... Xihirli could you move your vote to where it's actually helping me? While I do pretty much agree with you that Duneyrr's words are pretty darn suspect, that particular wagon doesn't seem to be taking off today.

As a general note, I'd really like to be able to play this game for a few more days. I've died pretty early on in the recent games iirc and given the way the schedule is and how much of the recent schedule was games run by me, I haven't actually been getting to actually play a whole lot recently. So if you could delay the whole inevitable once per game "Ramsus must die because everything Ramsus does clearly makes him a wolf even when applied to anyone else that would somehow make absolutely everyone a wolf" thing to a few days from now I'd really appreciate it.

[Logic]

My vote count and order history yields this for the current day:

Xihirli (RotWS)
RotWS (Xihirli)
Ramsus (Tom the Mime)
Ramsus [2] (rakkoon)
Tom the Mime (Ramsus)
Fin (Sanity702)
Eternis (Lex-Kat)
Tom the Mime [2] (Fin)
Ramsus [3] (Libro)
Lex-Kat (Eternis)
Ramsus [4] (Duneyrr)
RotWS [0] (unvote by Xihrili)
Duneyrr (Xihirli)
Tom the Mime [3] (Duck999)
Duck999 (Peebles)
Ramsus [5] (Murska)
Ramsus [6] (Cuthalion)
Tom the Mime [4] (Logic)

[rakkoon]

Sorry Ramsus, I'm actually trying not to kill Tom for once.
Just met the guy and I seem to be trying to kill him in every game so far.
And I have not survived longer than 1 day in my last four roles (long live replacements!) so it's not just you mate

[Murska]

I disagree with the Wolf-Ramsus theory.

Ramsus broke the 3-way tie away between Xihirli, AV, and Libro, when Xihirli would have been the one to get the noose. Normally, third on a wagon counter to a wolf is where wolves try to hide, so that gives Ramsus a tiny amount of pro-wolf points, but Xihirli is the lynchpin (pun intended) to Ramsus' wolf status. So I don't think Ramsus is a wolf unless Xihirli is also a wolf.

I think this voting pattern clears Libro (and somewhat confuses me why he wasn't the kill last night) but Ramsus could just as easily be a D1 clueless villager when he cast his vote, UNLESS Xihirli is also a wolf.

I'm voting for Tom the Mime for now, pending more evidence.

Note: I was the second vote on Libro that made it a 2-2-2 tie.

EDIT: More than 24 hours had elapsed between the second vote on Libro (mine) to Ramsus placing the third vote on Libro. I don't see how the timing is that suspicious.

So... you don't think having a wolf at 2 votes with two other people is less safe for the wolf team than having a wolf on 2 votes with someone else on 3? All that could be read off a 2/2/2 wagon at that point was that one of those was likely to get lynched. Why would you expect the votecount to remain unchanged until the end of the day?

[Ramsus]

Why would you expect saving the most fun player in a game designed for fun shenanigans is a wolf play that involves pointlessly sticking out my neck when it wasn't actually needed and failed?

Edit: @rakkoon: That's some rough luck. Maybe if you'd pointed it out to people they might not have done that so much. Assuming you showed at some point that you're willing to give leeway in such situations too. Hint hint.
Also though, I don't think it's pro-town that you just admitted you're lynching me not because you think I'm a good lynch, but just because you don't want to lynch Tom.
I don't expect this to really change your mind, I just want people to remember your not being particularly town goal oriented when I flip not a wolf.

[Xihirli]

I am fun...

Tom the Mime but suspicion on Duneyrr.

Rakkoon, if you don't want to lynch Tom you should help push up Duneyrr's vote-count so I can hop over.

I'm like 28.3% sure we have two Town Wagon.

[Ramsus]

I wouldn't be surprised by that since the logic for voting me started out bad and got increasingly worse with every vote on me. Though that kind of points to Tom being a wolf and other wolves on the wagon trying to protect him.

[rakkoon]

Hmm, I have the feeling I'm being played but you guys are fighting for it so Duneyrr

[Ramsus]

Duneyrr it is then.

[Xihirli]

Hmm, I have the feeling I'm being played but you guys are fighting for it so Duneyrr

I did take four levels in Drow Lawyer (8 levels fighter prerequisite).
Duneyrr

[Thematthew]

So I'm going to end the day a bit late to get it back to a good time for me, it'll be around 23 hours from now.

[Murska]

I wouldn't be surprised by that since the logic for voting me started out bad and got increasingly worse with every vote on me. Though that kind of points to Tom being a wolf and other wolves on the wagon trying to protect him.

You say it, doesn't make it true. There's a good case for you, and literally nothing for anyone else. If you want to defend yourself with something other than appeal to emotion, try finding us a player more suspicious than yourself and make a case on them.

[Ramsus]

Oh look. Murska is ignoring everything that's been said that doesn't fit into their pre-drawn conclusion.
Seriously man, we've (yes, not just me) have already made cases for why other people are suspicious today. Which is why people are willing to vote for Tom or Duneyrr. You can pretend all you want that the logic for voting for them doesn't exist or hasn't already been explained or the logic for voting for me isn't bad.
You say it, doesn't make it true.

*bursts into song*
~doesn't make it true~
~n't true~

[ImperatorV]

Out of the three possible wagons, Duneyrr is the one that seems most wolf-like to me.

[Cuthalion]

Out of the three possible wagons, Duneyrr is the one that seems most wolf-like to me.

Why's that?

[ImperatorV]

Why's that?

I was pretty heavily influenced by Xihirli's reasoning here:

But Duneyrr genuinely arouses suspicion. Jumping on a wagon right in the middleish, offering a mostly unmemorable post which reinforced the current wagon as though content with it but not overly committed, and casually dropping in two possible wolves without reasoning - one of which I know to be town.
Tom is acting like normal and he provided real reasoning, at least as far as Day 2 is concerned. Duneyrr piggybacked.

This seems more suspicious (IMO) then what we have against Ramsus and Tom the Mime. I'd rather lynch Duneyrr then either of them.

[Duneyrr]

That spun on me really badly. Honestly, I simply find Ramsus (and Xihirli more and more) the most suspicious out of a group where no one is very suspicious at all. I'm just doing my best, since there aren't any very good logical arguments to be made yet with the data we have.

[Logic]

That spun on me really badly. Honestly, I simply find Ramsus (and Xihirli more and more) the most suspicious out of a group where no one is very suspicious at all. I'm just doing my best, since there aren't any very good logical arguments to be made yet with the data we have.

Emphasis mine, and on that, I strongly disagree.

The case on Ramsus isn't as bad as Ramsus claims, but it has merit, and I can see the line of thinking that has led people to that wagon.

The case against you also has merit.

The case against Tom is probably the weakest of the available wagons.

But I'm going with a hunch here. Duneyrr.

[Murska]

Yeah, Ramsus is my gut feeling. Even if he were not trying to save AV from a definite lynch, it did look like insurance that he wouldn't get lynched by loading up on the largest wagon at the time.

Edit: Though there is no guarantee that Libro is not a wolf as well... or Xihirli, for that matter

So the case against Duneyrr is this? He literally states his strong agreement on Libro's wolf read on Ramsus, even explaining it further which makes it clear he's read the case and done independent thinking on it, and then hedges lightly by noting that Libro might be a wolf (which I don't really understand the relevance of) or Xihirli might be one (which is obviously relevant in that Ramsus specifically said he was protecting Xihirli).

As far as I can tell, Ramsus's case for his vote being perfectly placed to attempt a rescue of the Devil from the lynch is that in that specific situation if literally no vote movements happen until the end of day Xihirli (of unknown alignment) gets lynched instead of AV. He says that as wolf he should not vote and instead launch a rescue attempt later if AV is put into the lead. However, that's obviously incorrect - if AV is put into the lead, not only does Ramsus's vote not save AV, it's also much more suspicious than trying to steer the wagons away from AV now. His play was literally optimal for a wolf attempting to ensure AV doesn't get lynched, if we just think vote mechanics and wagonomics and leave manipulation out of it.

[Ramsus]

Murska the main problem with your argument is that between you, Duneyrr, and Tom I was a wolf no matter what for breaking the tie for any reason. When people make arguments like that, it makes everyone involved in that pretty suspicious because "no matter what you do or why, you're a wolf" is not an arguing tactic that favors town.
Another major problem with your claim is that my vote didn't save AV from getting lynched. So according to you I engaged in "optimal" wolf play.... which failed.... while also failing to consider what would occur if it failed and how that would look vs how it would look if I just did nothing and let the chips fall where they may. Because according to your own scenario, if I didn't vote AV would still have gotten lynched. And nowhere does your scenario explain why I'd bother drawing attention to myself at all or why I didn't try harder to actually save AV if I was going to do so. Your scenario only works if I act exactly the way that works for me being a wolf AND you being able to catch me out as one on day 1. That's not a particular good argument.
Also your scenario is bull. It was day 1. Anyone could have voted after the tie was broken in a way that was actually designed to push a wagon away from AV and they wouldn't get nearly this much scrutiny because other than wolves, nobody would know AV was a wolf. And yet you're after me for breaking a tie in favor of someone who didn't get lynched to protect someone else who wasn't the wolf that got lynched.
In fact... why aren't we even looking at other people who voted after I broke the tie? There's three people out for me specifically because I broke the tie and nobody examining anyone else's post-tie break activity? That's a bit suspect.

Edit: Also I'm pretty certain I know your play well enough that if it was pretty much anyone else breaking the tie and you were town, you would be approving of them taking an action which resulting in us having information to work with, rather than very typical scenario of nobody wanting to break the tie in fear of drawing attention to themselves which results in no real information coming out of the day. You can claim someone else would have done so if I didn't, but that's just words. We've seen plenty of cases where people in fact don't and day 1 is no use at all for figuring anything out. In the end, I did something that favored town at personal risk to myself and you've decided that makes me a wolf where you normally wouldn't do that. Something stinks there.

[Murska]

Murska the main problem with your argument is that between you, Duneyrr, and Tom I was a wolf no matter what for breaking the tie for any reason. When people make arguments like that, it makes everyone involved in that pretty suspicious because "no matter what you do or why, you're a wolf" is not an arguing tactic that favors town.
Another major problem with your claim is that my vote didn't save AV from getting lynched. So according to you I engaged in "optimal" wolf play.... which failed.... while also failing to consider what would occur if it failed and how that would look vs how it would look if I just did nothing and let the chips fall where they may. Because according to your own scenario, if I didn't vote AV would still have gotten lynched. And nowhere does your scenario explain why I'd bother drawing attention to myself at all or why I didn't try harder to actually save AV if I was going to do so. Your scenario only works if I act exactly the way that works for me being a wolf AND you being able to catch me out as one on day 1. That's not a particular good argument.
Also your scenario is bull. It was day 1. Anyone could have voted after the tie was broken in a way that was actually designed to push a wagon away from AV and they wouldn't get nearly this much scrutiny because other than wolves, nobody would know AV was a wolf. And yet you're after me for breaking a tie in favor of someone who didn't get lynched to protect someone else who wasn't the wolf that got lynched.
In fact... why aren't we even looking at other people who voted after I broke the tie? There's three people out for me specifically because I broke the tie and nobody examining anyone else's post-tie break activity? That's a bit suspect.

Edit: Also I'm pretty certain I know your play well enough that if it was pretty much anyone else breaking the tie and you were town, you would be approving of them taking an action which resulting in us having information to work with, rather than very typical scenario of nobody wanting to break the tie in fear of drawing attention to themselves which results in no real information coming out of the day. You can claim someone else would have done so if I didn't, but that's just words. We've seen plenty of cases where people in fact don't and day 1 is no use at all for figuring anything out. In the end, I did something that favored town at personal risk to myself and you've decided that makes me a wolf where you normally wouldn't do that. Something stinks there.

Appeal to emotion and omgus read denied.

As for the bolded, please go ahead and do that. In fact if you're town why aren't you trying to find the wolves instead of spewing weak defense of yourself and focusing only on your current counterwagons?

I guess I'll also respond to the actual defense, bad as it might be:

If you broke the tie by voting AV, I'd be fine. Or if you posted a case where you thought one of the others was a wolf, and voted based on that, that'd also be fine. Or if you voted off wagon I'd consider it slightly wolfish null, or even towny if you had a reason for your vote.

If you engage in a wolf play that fails, it doesn't change the fact that it was a wolf play. It was the best possible method to use if you want to save AV. If you care more about your own survival than saving AV (as hypothetical wolf) then you'd vote for AV which looks good for you. Not voting looks pretty bad on its own and is less likely to save AV at all. Trying harder to save AV, that is, building a case for someone else being a wolf or for AV being town and pushing that case hard, would definitely out you in case you failed and you'd have to actually figure out such a case first and make it persuasive, which isn't easy.

If you, or anyone else, did succeed in saving AV, then nobody would know AV is a wolf and therefore there'd be not much scrutiny on them at all which is exactly what you'd be banking on in the scenario I'm positing. It's not like you could know beforehand that AV would get lynched.

[Tom the Mime]

In fact... why aren't we even looking at other people who voted after I broke the tie? There's three people out for me specifically because I broke the tie and nobody examining anyone else's post-tie break activity? That's a bit suspect.

Let's look at that quickly. Libro voted for AV to help save themselves and then RoTWS voted for AV. That's it. If either one of them hadn't Libro would've been lynched instead of the devil. Unless you're arguing wolves lynching each other D1 for cover or Libro being a wolf worth more than the devil, I don't know where you wanted to go with this.