Stormcloaks Or Empire (One Of The Three Certainties Of Life)

[Errorname]

That "available" qualifier there is a very important one that youre ignoring. The garrison of a border fort is not an available force. Its busy occupying the fort! Its highly unlikely that the Summerset Isles lent their navy to the campaign against the majority-landlocked Cyrodiil, so thats still a thing they have to contend with as well even if they were to attempt to bypass Valenwood for some reason.

Still, it indicates the Empire were in a position to keep fighting and hold out for better terms if nothing else.

[druid91]

That "available" qualifier there is a very important one that youre ignoring. The garrison of a border fort is not an available force. Its busy occupying the fort! Its highly unlikely that the Summerset Isles lent their navy to the campaign against the majority-landlocked Cyrodiil, so thats still a thing they have to contend with as well even if they were to attempt to bypass Valenwood for some reason.

Generously that at best puts them still outnumbered by the Empire by significant margins. They were engaged in an invasion, they are not going to have large quantities of troops just sitting around on the home front, and most of their best and brightest would be in the invasion forces, with less successful troops and commanders stuck with garrison duty.

They lost the Great War decisively in a very real sense, yet the powers that be in Cyrodiil handed them everything they wanted on a silver platter to avoid even a shadow of a potential continuation of violence that could touch them personally.

Their victory was purely political. They are not some conquering horde that forced the empire to submit, they got lucky. And we know this because we have one 'post great war' data point for Dominion military achievement and that is their attempted conquest of Hammerfell. Where they lost and were entirely driven out of even the territories they had consolidated under their control during the great war.

Had the Empire not signed the Concordat there is a very real possibility the Dominion would have lost even more and the Empire would have emerged stronger than ever. Instead we're left with an empire shattered by the signing of the Concordat, full of Thalmor agents who despite your protestations that 'they can't do that' clearly are pushing their own operations in Imperial lands with no pushback.

[Divayth Fyr]

Still, it indicates the Empire were in a position to keep fighting and hold out for better terms if nothing else.

And the Empire, at that moment, would know that how exactly?

[Cikomyr2]

And the Empire, at that moment, would know that how exactly?

And this goes back to the Empire being structurally weak, impotent and unable to properly jauge the opposition they are fighting.

If the Empire was deceived in believing it had lost, then it had lost.

[Keltest]

And this goes back to the Empire being structurally weak, impotent and unable to properly jauge the opposition they are fighting.

If the Empire was deceived in believing it had lost, then it had lost.

It wasn't "deceived", they had their economic and political heartland crushed and their armies battered beyond easy recovery. Everyone and their cat is telling you that the Empire was genuinely beaten. Just saying "Nuh uh!" does not change that reality.

[Errorname]

It wasn't "deceived", they had their economic and political heartland crushed and their armies battered beyond easy recovery. Everyone and their cat is telling you that the Empire was genuinely beaten. Just saying "Nuh uh!" does not change that reality.

Both sides were battered at this point and the Empire had gained genuine momentum. A serious counter-invasion wasn't on the cards, but holding out for better terms was. The White-Gold Concordat is a term the Empire signed because their leaders lacked the will to keep up the fight, and by signing it guaranteed that they would never have that will again.

[Keltest]

Both sides were battered at this point and the Empire had gained genuine momentum. A serious counter-invasion wasn't on the cards, but holding out for better terms was. The White-Gold Concordat is a term the Empire signed because their leaders lacked the will to keep up the fight, and by signing it guaranteed that they would never have that will again.

The Empire, at that point, has no intelligence on the Dominion at all. Holding out in a state of active conflict is strictly worse for them. The Dominion just sends saboteur teams in to assassinate people, destroy crops, and otherwise start a war of attrition that they can't do anything about because they have nobody available to do counter-operations. The whole point of stopping the warfare is to let them catch their breath, rebuild, resupply, and prepare for the inevitable second round. We are literally told this is the plan. At this point, arguing that the Empire could have kept fighting the Dominion to their gain is just ignoring what the game tells us. Its the worst kind of armchair generaling.

[druid91]

The Empire, at that point, has no intelligence on the Dominion at all. Holding out in a state of active conflict is strictly worse for them. The Dominion just sends saboteur teams in to assassinate people, destroy crops, and otherwise start a war of attrition that they can't do anything about because they have nobody available to do counter-operations. The whole point of stopping the warfare is to let them catch their breath, rebuild, resupply, and prepare for the inevitable second round. We are literally told this is the plan. At this point, arguing that the Empire could have kept fighting the Dominion to their gain is just ignoring what the game tells us. Its the worst kind of armchair generaling.

What, you mean exactly like the Thalmor is doing now but in the case that the war continued you'd be legally allowed to kill them and their reach would be significantly shortened by not having any legal excuse to be there policing the people of the empire?

No, it's listening to what the game tells us. It is the plan for Titus and the Legions, but it was a plan forced upon him by Cyrodiil being weak. Hence why he can't move legions from the Aldmeri borders. Because if Cyrodiil is attacked again the powers that be will cave again.

It's the desperate, obviously failing plan of an Empire that is out of workable options because their leadership is too weak to actually do what needs doing.

[Batcathat]

The Empire, at that point, has no intelligence on the Dominion at all. Holding out in a state of active conflict is strictly worse for them. The Dominion just sends saboteur teams in to assassinate people, destroy crops, and otherwise start a war of attrition that they can't do anything about because they have nobody available to do counter-operations. The whole point of stopping the warfare is to let them catch their breath, rebuild, resupply, and prepare for the inevitable second round. We are literally told this is the plan. At this point, arguing that the Empire could have kept fighting the Dominion to their gain is just ignoring what the game tells us. Its the worst kind of armchair generaling.

While it's quite possible that ending the war at that point was in the Empire's best interest, the fact that they signed such a ridiculously one-sided treaty still seems like a political and diplomatic failure. Giving in to all of the enemy's demands is what you do when you're decisively beaten by a superior enemy, not when both sides are badly battered.

Even if the Empire considered the terms of the Concordant worth it to buy some time, signing it sent a very powerful message to all their enemies within and without. I'm surprised that there aren't more rebellions and/or invasions in the time since.

[Keltest]

While it's quite possible that ending the war at that point was in the Empire's best interest, the fact that they signed such a ridiculously one-sided treaty still seems like a political and diplomatic failure. Giving in to all of the enemy's demands is what you do when you're decisively beaten by a superior enemy, not when both sides are badly battered.

Even if the Empire considered the terms of the Concordant worth it to buy some time, signing it sent a very powerful message to all their enemies within and without. I'm surprised that there aren't more rebellions and/or invasions in the time since.

Of course it is! Thats what happens when you lose a war. Losing is bad, thats why people try not to do it! I don't understand why people are having such a hard time wrapping their heads around this.

[druid91]

Of course it is! Thats what happens when you lose a war. Losing is bad, thats why people try not to do it! I don't understand why people are having such a hard time wrapping their heads around this.

Because they didn't lose the war! That's the part you're not getting. When the vast majority of your opponents forces are dead and they literally do not have the manpower to hurt you anymore is not the time to be offering them favorable terms!

[Batcathat]

Of course it is! Thats what happens when you lose a war. Losing is bad, thats why people try not to do it! I don't understand why people are having such a hard time wrapping their heads around this.

While the details are unclear (despite some people interpreting it one way or the other), it seems pretty clear that both sides were pretty spent at that point. Maybe the Dominion had an edge, but I don't see it being big enough for them to get literally everything they asked for.

[Keltest]

Because they didn't lose the war! That's the part you're not getting. When the vast majority of your opponents forces are dead and they literally do not have the manpower to hurt you anymore is not the time to be offering them favorable terms!

This isnt a game of Starcraft where all you have to do is destroy all the enemy's buildings to win. The Empire's own armies were smashed to bits! They won the last battle, but their heartland is still occupied by enemy forces and devastated to boot. As far as surrenders go, the Concordant is incredibly favorable for the Empire. The only really nasty part is ceding land in Hammerfell, and ultimately they didnt even have to go through with that one. They failed to stick the landing on the Talos bit, but that isn't really their fault, Ulfric is just a complete idiot who can't play politics to save his life.

[Batcathat]

This isnt a game of Starcraft where all you have to do is destroy all the enemy's buildings to win. The Empire's own armies were smashed to bits! They won the last battle, but their heartland is still occupied by enemy forces and devastated to boot. As far as surrenders go, the Concordant is incredibly favorable for the Empire. The only really nasty part is ceding land in Hammerfell, and ultimately they didnt even have to go through with that one. They failed to stick the landing on the Talos bit, but that isn't really their fault, Ulfric is just a complete idiot who can't play politics to save his life.

While I agree Ulfric has no head for politics, I don't give much for the Empire's political savvy either if they thought that accepting some frankly humiliating terms (and then living with them indefinitely) wouldn't blow up in their faces.

Yes, the terms could have been worse but calling them favorable seems like an incredible stretch.

[druid91]

This isnt a game of Starcraft where all you have to do is destroy all the enemy's buildings to win. The Empire's own armies were smashed to bits! They won the last battle, but their heartland is still occupied by enemy forces and devastated to boot. As far as surrenders go, the Concordant is incredibly favorable for the Empire. The only really nasty part is ceding land in Hammerfell, and ultimately they didnt even have to go through with that one. They failed to stick the landing on the Talos bit, but that isn't really their fault, Ulfric is just a complete idiot who can't play politics to save his life.

They did more than win the last battle. The Battle of Red Ring involved the total destruction of all Aldmeri forces in Cyrodiil. Which as previously mentioned, were all available forces.

Cyrodiil was not currently occupied because all occupiers were busy being dead.

Even if we grant that the Dominion still had defensive garrisons left, they couldn't exactly empty those given they're not exactly entirely popular on the home front. And if they did that just invites the Empire to do the same with garrisons in the outlying provinces.

Just from a pure population standpoint the empire has four intact provinces, (and Morrowind but Morrowind is pretty messed up.) to the Dominions 3 at the start of the great war. The idea that the Dominion which has been actively purging its population of dissidents somehow has a manpower advantage is ridiculous on the face of it and has no support from the game.

[Keltest]

While I agree Ulfric has no head for politics, I don't give much for the Empire's political savvy either if they thought that accepting some frankly humiliating terms (and then living with them indefinitely) wouldn't blow up in their faces.

Yes, the terms could have been worse but calling them favorable seems like an incredible stretch.

the Dominion got out of (most of) the Empire, and all it took was some gold (which, since we don't hear about the Empire going bankrupt, was apparently not a crippling amount) and some political lip service. If Ulfric had just followed the game plan, the Empire would have gotten away almost scott free except for the damaged inflicted during the actual battles. Losing southern Hammerfell sucked, but the Dominion was actively occupying it and had a second army there, so dislodging them while Cyrodiil was still occupied by the Dominion would be a difficult prospect.

They did more than win the last battle. The Battle of Red Ring involved the total destruction of all Aldmeri forces in Cyrodiil. Which as previously mentioned, were all available forces.

Cyrodiil was not currently occupied because all occupiers were busy being dead.

Even if we grant that the Dominion still had defensive garrisons left, they couldn't exactly empty those given they're not exactly entirely popular on the home front. And if they did that just invites the Empire to do the same with garrisons in the outlying provinces.

Just from a pure population standpoint the empire has four intact provinces, (and Morrowind but Morrowind is pretty messed up.) to the Dominions 3 at the start of the great war. The idea that the Dominion which has been actively purging its population of dissidents somehow has a manpower advantage is ridiculous on the face of it and has no support from the game.

This is like the fourth time youve been told thats not how that works.

[Batcathat]

the Dominion got out of (most of) the Empire, and all it took was some gold (which, since we don't hear about the Empire going bankrupt, was apparently not a crippling amount) and some political lip service. If Ulfric had just followed the game plan, the Empire would have gotten away almost scott free except for the damaged inflicted during the actual battles. Losing southern Hammerfell sucked, but the Dominion was actively occupying it and had a second army there, so dislodging them while Cyrodiil was still occupied by the Dominion would be a difficult prospect.

Yes, the terms were survivable, but still incredibly one-sided and a momentous loss in terms of political capital and reputation. I'm not the least bit religious, but even I understand that telling people that worship of their favorite god is banned (even if people could do it sneakily before Ulfric forced the issue) is not going to go down well at all. And even to people who don't care about Talos (or Hammerfell or the Blades), accepting terms like that made the Empire, rightly or wrongly, seem incredibly weak.

[druid91]

the Dominion got out of (most of) the Empire, and all it took was some gold (which, since we don't hear about the Empire going bankrupt, was apparently not a crippling amount) and some political lip service. If Ulfric had just followed the game plan, the Empire would have gotten away almost scott free except for the damaged inflicted during the actual battles. Losing southern Hammerfell sucked, but the Dominion was actively occupying it and had a second army there, so dislodging them while Cyrodiil was still occupied by the Dominion would be a difficult prospect.

There's no indication the Dominion got out of most of the Empire after the Concordat, and the Empire lost an entire province which means losing a literal third of its core provinces, which at the time were Hammerfell, Skyrim, and Cyrodiil.

So the deal loses them Hammerfell outright and guarantees unrest in Skyrim, which leads to a civil war bleeding the empire of men and potentially loses them the province entirely.

The Army in Hammerfell was the only Dominion army they were capable of fielding and it was defeated by what little forces remained in Hammerfell after they were cut loose. There is no reason the Empire should have folded beyond cowardice of the ruling classes in Cyrodiil.

This is like the fourth time youve been told thats not how that works.

And it's the fourth time that statement has been wrong. Just saying "It doesn't work like that." Doesn't change that the game and lore supports the idea that the empire was bloodied but the Dominion was effectively broken and the white gold concordat was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Batcathat]

Doesn't change that the game and lore supports the idea that the empire was bloodied but the Dominion was effectively broken and the white gold concordat was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

If there is actual evidence of this, would you mind summing it up? Because to me it seems like a situation we know little about the specifics of that both sides are interpreting in wildly different ways, while insisting it's the only interpretation.

[druid91]

If there is actual evidence of this, would you mind summing it up? Because to me it seems like a situation we know little about the specifics of that both sides are interpreting in wildly different ways, while insisting it's the only interpretation.

https://elderscrolls.fandom.com/wiki/Great_War is the summary of the great war I'm largely going off of. It has a reference section for where you can find most of it in game. Though some of the lore for specific events is from another game called Elder Scrolls legends. But nothing super important. Just the whole bit about a 'nameless hero' wearing Titus Medes armor into battle at Red Ring Because Titus was injured in an assassination attempt.

[Batcathat]

https://elderscrolls.fandom.com/wiki/Great_War is the summary of the great war I'm largely going off of. It has a reference section for where you can find most of it in game. Though some of the lore for specific events is from another game called Elder Scrolls legends. But nothing super important. Just the whole bit about a 'nameless hero' wearing Titus Medes armor into battle at Red Ring Because Titus was injured in an assassination attempt.

The book that page is referencing specifically says "Although victorious, the Imperial armies were in no shape to continue the war" which sounds a bit worse than "bloodied" to me. Now, what it comes down to is how what forces remained throughout the Empire compared to what forces remained in the Dominion, but if that book is at least a little trustworthy it seems fair to say neither side was doing great (which does make it a reasonable time to negotiate, even if the outcome seems odd to me).

[druid91]

The book that page is referencing specifically says "Although victorious, the Imperial armies were in no shape to continue the war" which sounds a bit worse than "bloodied" to me. Now, what it comes down to is how what forces remained throughout the Empire compared to what forces remained in the Dominion, but if that book is at least a little trustworthy it seems fair to say neither side was doing great (which does make it a reasonable time to negotiate, even if the outcome seems odd to me).

The issue being that neither were the Dominion forces. They had a weakened army left in Hammerfell, and that was it as far as forces they could deploy abroad.

The whole thing simply assumes that the Dominion had the means to continue the war. And they simply didn't. Even if the legions didn't actually do any fighting and just tried to rebuild there's nothing the Aldmeri could have done about it. And it would have enabled the Empire to support Hammerfell in other ways.

The writer is clearly pro the white gold concordat, but the picture he paints is not.

[Batcathat]

The issue being that neither were the Dominion forces. They had a weakened army left in Hammerfell, and that was it as far as forces they could deploy abroad.

The whole thing simply assumes that the Dominion had the means to continue the war. And they simply didn't. Even if the legions didn't actually do any fighting and just tried to rebuild there's nothing the Aldmeri could have done about it. And it would have enabled the Empire to support Hammerfell in other ways.

That's certainly one possible interpretation, but so is "what the Dominion could scrape together would have beaten what the Empire could scrape together" or "neither side would've won decisively and it would've turned into a drawn-out meat-grinder" or some other alternative. We don't know the numbers on either side and we don't know for sure who was the most ready to keep fighting (or "least unready" as the case might've been).

[druid91]

That's certainly one possible interpretation, but so is "what the Dominion could scrape together would have beaten what the Empire could scrape together" or "neither side would've won decisively and it would've turned into a drawn-out meat-grinder" or some other alternative. We don't know the numbers on either side and we don't know for sure who was the most ready to keep fighting (or "least unready" as the case might've been).

We don't know the numbers sure, but we have some descriptions.

The Dominion fielded two armies consisting of 'all available forces.'

The Army in Hammerfell was crippled by the legions before they left Hammerfell and then driven across the desert taking heavy losses by the Alik'r.

All this happened prior to the battle of Red Ring.

We're given no real indication of where the Alik'r stood troops wise, but given they eventually won on their own without further imperial assistance it's reasonable to assume "Better than the Dominion."

Then there's the battle of Red Ring, where the larger Cyrodiil invasion army was entrapped and entirely destroyed.

The cost to the legions is said to be three legions of at least 8 wiped out entirely, and the remainder with heavy losses leaving the best at half strength.

In the aftermath of Red Ring, the Empire sues for peace with the white gold concordat.

Hammerfell rejects the concordat and after five years of fighting without imperial support pushes the Dominion out of Hammerfell.

That doesn't indicate that the Dominion had the steam to actually put up a fight.

It's also interesting but obviously non-specific that the Imperial losses at Red Ring and the Aldmeri losses in Hammerfell at the hands of the Alik'r are both described as 'Heavy' implying some level of equivalency in losses as part of their overall strength.

[Divayth Fyr]

Thing is, the Empire had no way of knowing how much steam the Dominion does have left. Hindsight is 20/20, but at that point they had little to go on, and basically nothing from the Dominion territory (since the spy networks got eradicated). They could continue fighting, sure, but as far as they knew that did come with a potential risk of a total defeat.

[Errorname]

Of course it is! Thats what happens when you lose a war. Losing is bad, thats why people try not to do it! I don't understand why people are having such a hard time wrapping their heads around this.

They lost because they yielded, and from what information we have that was probably a mistake. The Dominion do not seem to have been capable of maintaining their offensive, the Empire could have held out.

As far as surrenders go, the Concordant is incredibly favorable for the Empire. The only really nasty part is ceding land in Hammerfell, and ultimately they didnt even have to go through with that one. They failed to stick the landing on the Talos bit, but that isn't really their fault, Ulfric is just a complete idiot who can't play politics to save his life.

There was always going to be an Ulfric. Ulfric isn't just some random idiot who ruined a workable master plan, he's an unaware pawn of the Thalmor, and if he didn't turn out they'd have found somebody else because they were looking for the excuse to crack down on Talos and stoke civil conflict within the Empire, and there's a lot of people who fought and bled for the Empire who then watched them sign away Hammerfell and their Founder God over to their hated enemy, that's a good recipe for bitterness and resentment that the Thalmor could exploit.

So yeah, I absolutely blame the Empire for letting the Thalmor get that wedge into the treaty, because the Thalmor proceeded to use it to very effectively pry apart their coalition.

That's certainly one possible interpretation, but so is "what the Dominion could scrape together would have beaten what the Empire could scrape together" or "neither side would've won decisively and it would've turned into a drawn-out meat-grinder" or some other alternative. We don't know the numbers on either side and we don't know for sure who was the most ready to keep fighting (or "least unready" as the case might've been).

My instinct is that if the Thalmor could have kept fighting, they would have. Empire probably can't win, but the Thalmor can't either, so the Empire has potential leverage in the negotiation that they just utterly failed to use.

[druid91]

Thing is, the Empire had no way of knowing how much steam the Dominion does have left. Hindsight is 20/20, but at that point they had little to go on, and basically nothing from the Dominion territory (since the spy networks got eradicated). They could continue fighting, sure, but as far as they knew that did come with a potential risk of a total defeat.

Potentially but even in that case their mistake should have become clear during the 5 years of war in Hammerfell.

And once that was clear they should have immediately broken the treaty and joined Hammerfell.

[Batcathat]

There was always going to be an Ulfric. Ulfric isn't just some random idiot who ruined a workable master plan, he's an unaware pawn of the Thalmor, and if he didn't turn out they'd have found somebody else because they were looking for the excuse to crack down on Talos and stoke civil conflict within the Empire, and there's a lot of people who fought and bled for the Empire who then watched them sign away Hammerfell and their Founder God over to their hated enemy, that's a good recipe for bitterness and resentment that the Thalmor could exploit.

So yeah, I absolutely blame the Empire for letting the Thalmor get that wedge into the treaty, because the Thalmor proceeded to use it to very effectively pry apart their coalition.

Yeah, this is my take on it, too. If anything, the Thalmor actively manipulating the situation feels like overdoing it, since things blowing up on their own (especially once it becomes obvious that we're not just talking waiting a couple of years) seems very likely. Even if it wasn't someone pissed about the Concordat, signing it certainly gave the Empire an impression of weakness a lot of people would probably want to exploit.

My instinct is that if the Thalmor could have kept fighting, they would have. Empire probably can't win, but the Thalmor can't either, so the Empire has potential leverage in the negotiation that they just utterly failed to use.

Yeah, I'm sort of leaning towards that too, though again there are too many unknowns to be very sure. But yeah, at the very least negotiating a treaty that had some give and take (even if it still mostly favored the Dominion) seems reasonably doable.

Potentially but even in that case their mistake should have become clear during the 5 years of war in Hammerfell.

And once that was clear they should have immediately broken the treaty and joined Hammerfell.

Again, the Dominion failing to conquer Hammerfell doesn't prove that they would've lost a continued war against the Empire, just that it reached a point where they didn't think it was worth continuing (which yes, could be that they were entirely out of available troops, but doesn't have to be).

[druid91]

Each of the Aldmeri provinces was at one point imperial, Elsweyr in fairly recent times.

Because of that it should have been not that hard to guess just based off of old numbers how many people the Aldmeri should be able to field and compare that to battlefield losses.

This is of course leaving aside that we know for a fact that the empire at the time of Skyrim knows that the Aldmeri were out of troops at the time because it's written in the book.

[Errorname]

Yeah, this is my take on it, too. If anything, the Thalmor actively manipulating the situation feels like overdoing it, since things blowing up on their own (especially once it becomes obvious that we're not just talking waiting a couple of years) seems very likely. Even if it wasn't someone pissed about the Concordat, signing it certainly gave the Empire an impression of weakness a lot of people would probably want to exploit.

We know from the Thalmor Dossier that they were at least trying to influence Ulfric and considered him an asset. The extent of their influence isn't clear, I would assume it was covert and subtle, prodding him towards doing things he wanted to do anyways, but they were keeping an eye on things and looking for people who could be influenced to the benefit of the Dominion.