Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)

[Rofltrollcopter]

That doesn't preclude the possibility that somebody else on that team is also a minion, however. I've still got a suspicious eye on Rofl, to be honest: again, the fact that both Eloel and Rofl tried to present an either-or scenario where we should trust either one or the other (posts 179 and 187), is to me odd. I mean, from their point of view, obviously they're loyal, but... I dunno. It really does seem like an excellent strategy as minions: all you need is one of two minions to be trusted and the game's won.

Presumably, given that Eloel knows we're onto him, he could be bluffing or doublebluffing or something. It's like that scene in Princess Bride with the poisoned wine: he might have known we'd think that, or might have known that we might have known... and so on. So, his early reject is basically meaningless.

I hoped someone else would have realized this since its gonna to sound like a suspiciously specific denial coming from me, but I will point it out anyways:

If Eloel and I were both minions, he would have called me good. You are right in that there is a world where it makes sense for a minion to throw himself under the bus to cover for another minion, but this was not the right situation for it. Neither of us were suspected by the table. If he called me good, none of you guys would have doubted it. In the world that he calls me good, it makes two people be respected by the table. Instead he has called attention to both of us.

Actually, no. Never mind. I'm up voting this, and I hope that the mission fails.

I would strongly encourage you to rethink this. From my perspective, at this point your either a minion or your frustrated with the game and you want the good guys to lose out of spite. Either way, your making it so the good guys don't want to listen to you.

If it helps, at this point I am still equally suspicious of all three of you.

[Eloel]

I would strongly encourage you to rethink this. From my perspective, at this point your either a minion or your frustrated with the game and you want the good guys to lose out of spite. Either way, you're making it so the good guys don't want to listen to you.

We may have our differences, but listen to this man, he has a good point. We still love you, don't get frustrated with us!

[jojolagger]

Based upon the that jojolagger also voted yes

To my own mission? Why wouldn't I support the team I selected over whatever nonsense someone else selects? Besides, everyone hating my team means the minions hated my team, doesn't it?

his repeated attacks on me (which wouldn't be so suspicious if he could actually present new evidence besides "I still think he's a minion")

There is evidence. your strange voting, your obfusication, your declaration of hatred.

and just vibe, I'm guessing jojo's the minion.

You're doing the exact same thing I am, with less evidence than I have and more conjecture.


Honestly, I can see why Lex is getting frustrated(if loyal). Luckily I'm to stubborn to quit.

[Lex-Kat]

I'm a spiteful pixie, what can I say. Most of all, I'm annoyed that it really doesn't matter what I say. It seems that there is no argument I can give that would dissuade the group-think from finding me guilty.

1} I voted up the first two, and by association with just that, I am guilty.

2} The fact that I, in character, "Begged" as Logic would put it, puts more guilt upon my head.

3} I then made the foolish mistake in believing that finding out that there was two minions on the second mission was a good thing.

4} I down voted the last mission, so therefore it must be the right mission, full of Loyal Knights.

4} I have no idea what other mistakes I've made, but I'm sure they can be found.

So, to end this post, you figure it out. There's still 5 Loyal Knights who care. That should be enough for you to win, shouldn't it?

[jojolagger]

2} The fact that I, in character, "Begged" as Logic would put it, puts more guilt upon my head.

This one isn't really in the counting. IC is basically putting some flavour text on top. And wanting to be on the team is smart for anyone (except for minions who can see other minions on the team).

3} I then made the foolish mistake in believing that finding out that there was two minions on the second mission was a good thing.

I'm pretty sure someone else did too. And I mean, it could be better (a 4 fail is best for loyals), but at least it wasn't a single fail that said very little.

4} I down voted the last mission, so therefore it must be the right mission, full of Loyal Knights.

Or the minions didn't like it because I picked the 2 from Bag Two.

4} I have no idea what other mistakes I've made, but I'm sure they can be found.

...That's number 5 on the list... not 4. (Just trying to poke a little fun.)

So, to end this post, you figure it out. There's still 5 Loyal Knights who care. That should be enough for you to win, shouldn't it?

Considering everyone seems lost and confused, not really.

In all seriousness, if you are loyal, you are needed. As I said before, maybe it doesn't matter what you say now. Groupthink will likely shift opinions if this team runs (and fails). Stick out the rough bit, and maybe you can still help cause the win.

[axl]

Ooh so many discussions since I last looked.

Now where to begin...

Because I trust Troll more than I trust jojolagger right now.

I felt like jojo might be a minion. Though now, I wonder about all those reject votes. At least 2 of the minions rejected this. Was it because they didn't want to stand out or because it was a good mission?

Thanks for answering my question.

Tanar, I was wondering the exact same thing. This was why I asked the four of you (essentially the ones who rejected without stating any particular reason in-thread). I’m still interested in hearing Duck and Legato’s reasons but now that this thought was mentioned, I’m afraid their answers may lean more towards “what they think we want to hear” vs the truth.

@Axl
I'm going to repeat my earlier question. From your perspective, you know 100% that Jojo and/or Eonas is a minion. Which one is more suspicious?

My official answer to that is: They are both equally suspicious to me.

Let me put it this way:
1. jojolagger is a minion.
2. Eonas is a minion.
Taken individually, I have a strong feeling that each statement is true. However taken as a set, I’m almost certain that only one of those statements is true, because of Eloel.

Unofficially though, of course I look at them differently. Both of them have at some point in this game done things that I think may be minion-ish but not definitive enough for me to accuse them out loud with it.

If this mission fails, I will no longer have the confidence of the table. It's Percival's job to win the game at that point.

My problem with that is, I have a feeling that Percival is a little confused right now. To be more specific, I think he suspects me to be a minion and I may not have enough time to convince him otherwise.

For the sake of keeping the game moving, I'm going to make this official.

Eonas, Troll, Tanar, Logic

I still haven’t voted. I need to think about this a little bit more. I hope it’s OK. One thing that kind of bothers me is that the 2 proposals for this round have been similar to each other (from my perspective at least) and I believe that even if we get to the fifth, the proposals will not be much different from each other so I may have to approve something soon or else be forced to accept a team that I really really don’t want.

Presumably, given that Eloel knows we're onto him, he could be bluffing or doublebluffing or something. It's like that scene in Princess Bride with the poisoned wine: he might have known we'd think that, or might have known that we might have known... and so on. So, his early reject is basically meaningless.

Ah, the dizzying intellect scene. Loved that. Actually, Troll and Duck also brought that scene up during the last game.

No. Just, no.

Not enough minions to get the informational sacrifice, but enough minions for a lost mission. This'd be a disaster.

Wait, you think that jojo/troll/logic/tanar will triple fail but eonas/troll/logic/tanar will single fail? Huh?

There's still 5 Loyal Knights who care. That should be enough for you to win, shouldn't it?

No, not really. Five players playing individually will be clobbered by 3-4 players coordinating with each other. As I previously mentioned to you, in this game, all it takes for the minions to win is for one loyal knight to say “I don’t care”. For what it’s worth, I also equally suspect you, Duck, and Legato. So far, the three of you have voted the same way, but I know that there is at least one loyal knight among you three. So you see, if you’re loyal and you give up now, a minion from that group might step up and convince the table of his trustworthiness which will lead to a minion victory.

(Note: I was going to reply to your list one by one, but when I re-read what I wrote, it turned out to be a little bit too similar to what jojolagger already stated so I decided against posting it to avoid being too redundant)

[Tris]

No. Just, no.

Not enough minions to get the informational sacrifice, but enough minions for a lost mission. This'd be a disaster.

Hold on. Last mission was the same except jojo instead of Eonas. So, are you saying jojo is a minion? If so, why would he propose a team with two minions?

- - - Updated - - -

By the way, it seems a number of people think I'm loyal. Why us that? I feel like I haven't done all that much to deserve that trust.

[jojolagger]

Wait, you think that jojo/troll/logic/tanar will triple fail but eonas/troll/logic/tanar will single fail? Huh?

He probably thinks double fail isn't worth it, where as a triple fail means the team of 4 has only one loyal, and combined with the last minion being in Bag One, would clear everyone not on the second or third missions completely. Ending up with 3 people completely cleared and 2/3 loyal in another bag is much better odds than we have now. There's a whole 33% chance of randomly picking a perfect team.

Or he's not oberon but actually a normal minion and doesn't want minion!eonas on a team with other minions...

I need to take a break and actually try to puzzle this whole thing out.

[Eloel]

Hold on. Last mission was the same except jojo instead of Eonas. So, are you saying jojo is a minion? If so, why would he propose a team with two minions?

Trust is an ever-shifting beast. The last rejection cleared Eonas to be slightly more trustworthy than jojo. Also, the answer to your second question is Oberon.

He probably thinks double fail isn't worth it, where as a triple fail means the team of 4 has only one loyal, and combined with the last minion being in Bag One, would clear everyone not on the second or third missions completely. Ending up with 3 people completely cleared and 2/3 loyal in another bag is much better odds than we have now. There's a whole 33% chance of randomly picking a perfect team.

Thanks.

[Tris]

Trust is an ever-shifting beast. The last rejection cleared Eonas to be slightly more trustworthy than jojo. Also, the answer to your second question is Oberon.

But, if Troll is Oberon as you seem to be suggesting, jojo would realize that when you gave a minion result on him. (Unless he thinks you're Oberon).

[Logic]

If Troll is a minion, I can see only two possible scenarios concerning his team selection (so others, please feel free to propose alternatives to the scenarios I lay out.)

• He reasonably thinks there are no minions in his team selection, save himself
• He believes his team selection will be rejected by the majority here

However, if Troll is loyal, I can see another 2 scenarios

• He has picked a team with one person he knows to be a minion with the express purpose of seeing the other players votes to assist in finding other minions
• Everyone in the team he suspects to be loyal

I voted ACCEPT for his team proposal, because I believe Troll to be loyal, and that he has picked only loyal players.

[Eloel]

But, if Troll is Oberon as you seem to be suggesting, jojo would realize that when you gave a minion result on him. (Unless he thinks you're Oberon).

Troll says I'm Oberon. I don't claim Troll is, I'm just saying jojo could be (I'm not saying jojo is either, just that he could be)

[Eonas]

If Eloel and I were both minions, he would have called me good. You are right in that there is a world where it makes sense for a minion to throw himself under the bus to cover for another minion, but this was not the right situation for it. Neither of us were suspected by the table. If he called me good, none of you guys would have doubted it. In the world that he calls me good, it makes two people be respected by the table. Instead he has called attention to both of us.

Okay, yeah, fair enough. Still:

If you remove us as 1 minion and 1 loyal, one of the following must be true:

1- Troll is a minion

5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 1 loyal and 2 non-loyal

That's a 20% chance of loyal-only mission, no matter how you cut it.

2- I am a minion

5 out of mission 2, 3 loyals and 2 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 2 loyals and 1 non-loyal

On a split of 3/1, this gives 7% chance. On a split of 2/2, this gives 10% chance.

--
On the other hand, if you do not remove us and do pick one (and only one) of us:
1- Troll is a minion
a- You pick Troll
0% chance
b- You pick me
5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 1 loyal and 2 non-loyals
With everyone else coming from out of mission, 40% chance.

2- I am a minion
a- You pick me
0% chance
b- You pick Troll
5 out of mission 2, 3 loyals and 2 non-loyal.
3 in mission 2, 2 loyal and 1 non-loyal.
Best pick is a split of 2/1 here, which gives 20% chance.


Either way, it's more mathematically sound to pick one of us (either one of us) than to not do so.

He was under attack when he refused to reveal his result, and outing you as guilty may have been a self-preservation instinct. By (to his mind) guaranteeing that one of the two would be on the team, well, he essentially wins the game. I'm not saying this is the case, by if so, it would certainly be a clever and effective gambit. Or at least, he might think so, anyway.

I do see your point, though. Admittedly, this whole thing's highly hypothetical anyway, and you did vote Reject on the first two missions...

I do trust Logic and I have no reason to mistrust Tanar, so unless somebody can dissuade me, I think I'll vote Accept.

[Eloel]

He was under attack when he refused to reveal his result, and outing you as guilty may have been a self-preservation instinct. By (to his mind) guaranteeing that one of the two would be on the team, well, he essentially wins the game. I'm not saying this is the case, by if so, it would certainly be a clever and effective gambit. Or at least, he might think so, anyway.

The general idea seemed to be that it was an xor condition. I presented the math that if someone believed in the xor condition, the math on picking one of us is better than picking neither of us. The group seems to have agreed to that, and has been backing Troll. Which is bad, yes, but at least it's logically sound.

[Eonas]

The general idea seemed to be that it was an xor condition. I presented the math that if someone believed in the xor condition, the math on picking one of us is better than picking neither of us. The group seems to have agreed to that, and has been backing Troll. Which is bad, yes, but at least it's logically sound.

I'm pretty sure that wasn't the general idea. You and Troll made it the general idea, IIRC. Which, again, isn't necessarily damning, but it does give me pause. Furthermore, I've just realized that Troll replied a little bit... aggressively towards Duck, when he claimed that neither of you two should be on the team. I mean, from his perspective, of course he'd rather be on the team, but I dunno. It's the fact that you both argued for one or the other being on the team. And (if you weren't both minions) you had far less of a reason to push the xor condition, since the way things were looking, we would clearly have chosen Troll over you.

I did say that Eloel was more suspicious, but that does not rule other people out.

I would sincerely hope that would be enough. Eloel has been using blatantly obvious minion logic.

I don't have enough to call Duck out, but the guy has been trying to defend the indefensible.

If you want additional reasoning, consider this. Duck voted 'yes' for two missions that he was not a member of twice in a row. He has been trying to blitz through the game.

And now the fact that your actually defending the logic to keep Troll in the team (even with the obligatory claim that it's 'bad') really does give me pause. As in, 'full stop' pause.

To my own mission? Why wouldn't I support the team I selected over whatever nonsense someone else selects? Besides, everyone hating my team means the minions hated my team, doesn't it?

Or maybe the minions wanted to keep a low-profile, because no Loyalist would want to vote a probable-loss team through for the third time in a row.

There is evidence. your strange voting, your obfusication, your declaration of hatred.

I already explained the 'strange' voting in post 186, among others. I have heard nobody call me on it since the explanation, so I assume I played perfectly normally. There's no obfuscation, as I've already said: genuinely, I'm kind of astounded y'all still find my IC posts that confusing. There were no circomvoluted sentence structures, no legalese, no "in the most eldritch reaches of the nethermost realms, slither chitinous, squamous traitors" crap. Reading it again, I don't see my posts as that incomprehensible at all: a little less limpid than a non-IC post, but certainly not nearly to the level of obfuscation. And clearly the declaration of hatred was a joke, just like my comments like "I would trust no other to correctly apply mascara". That's such a flimsy reason to believe I'm a Traitor that it'd make me suspect you if I didn't already think you were a Traitor.

Sigh. I'm getting too worked up about crappy reasoning. It's beginning to get late again, but I'll quickly reply to a couple items in Lex' recent post.

I'm a spiteful pixie, what can I say. Most of all, I'm annoyed that it really doesn't matter what I say. It seems that there is no argument I can give that would dissuade the group-think from finding me guilty.

Yeah, but in the 'blah blah' post, you didn't even try. Which is weird.

1} I voted up the first two, and by association with just that, I am guilty.

Clearly people's ideas of who is and isn't a traitor changes throughout the game. Again, you didn't even try to change ours about you.

So, to end this post, you figure it out. There's still 5 Loyal Knights who care. That should be enough for you to win, shouldn't it?

Again with the apathy. If you are Loyal and we think you're a Traitor, our probability of success on a mission goes down from ~9% (IIRC?) to, like, way less than 9%. You should care about making yourself look Loyal. What you're doing at this point is just saying that because we express suspicion of you, you won't try to defend yourself. (Which, incidentally, nearly worked on me - I very nearly didn't write a critical reply to your post, because I thought doing so would probably make you regress further into your shell of apathy. Of course, then I reconsidered that idea, thankfully.)

[Tris]

Troll says I'm Oberon. I don't claim Troll is, I'm just saying jojo could be (I'm not saying jojo is either, just that he could be)

I guess that's a possibility also. Although, in that scenario, he would have to think you are a minion like in the other one as well.

[Lex-Kat]

I may post it, but I haven't reached total apathy quite yet. I'm at least still reading the posts.

[axl]

By the way, it seems a number of people think I'm loyal. Why us that? I feel like I haven't done all that much to deserve that trust.

Maybe your actions for this game just fit in with how the others imagine a loyal knight will behave in certain situations.

Trust is an ever-shifting beast. The last rejection cleared Eonas to be slightly more trustworthy than jojo.

So what you're saying is that the minions are troll, jojo, logic, & me?

If Troll is a minion, I can see only two possible scenarios concerning his team selection (so others, please feel free to propose alternatives to the scenarios I lay out.)

• He reasonably thinks there are no minions in his team selection, save himself
• He believes his team selection will be rejected by the majority here

A third possibility (however far-fetched): Minions now no longer care if the third quest is double-failed. Actually this possibility was brought up by jojolagger and Eloel stating that a double-fail in the third quest will not bring much advantage to the loyalists.

[jojolagger]

What's the wait now?

[Logic]

What's the wait now?

My guess is Legato or Smashbro.

(If it is Legato, it is due to personal reasons he stated in another thread.)

[Duck999]

What's the wait now?

It might have been me. Don't worry, I sent in my choice now.

[Legato Endless]

My guess is Legato or Smashbro.

(If it is Legato, it is due to personal reasons he stated in another thread.)

Thanks Logic.

I re-sent my vote in 6 hours ago.

For some reason my messages aren't going through consistently. I died in another mafia game since the narrator didn't receive my night action.

[smashbro]

Sorry guys, just was able to check in again now. Short version is

Approved: (4)
Sir Axl (axl)
Sir Tristram (Tanar Aerdoth)
Sir Immer (Duck999)
Sir Fidious (Logic)



Rejected: (6)
Lord Edward Ruthven (Eonas)
Sir Myles (jojolagger)
Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter)
Lady Lexington (Lex-Kat)
Sir Galavant (Legato Endless)
Lord of Shallot (Eloel)




Tanar, it's your turn to pick a team.

[Duck999]

You switched the numbers. 6 Rejected, 4 accepted.

[Eonas]

Wait, at risk of being Mr. Obvious, I have to ask: why did you reject your own team, Troll?

[Eloel]

That, changes things a bit.

1) At least two of those that accepted are loyal - Tanar/Duck/Logic can only have at most 1 minion -
2) At least two minions, Troll and one of Eonas/Jojo rejected the proposal (yes 1 and 2 mean the same thing)
3) Troll, who proposed the group, rejected it.

While by no means a final list, by guess on minions currently is:
Eonas, jojo (oberon), Troll and Duck.

The voting pattern for Eonas seemed particularly interesting, since he rejected both the starting missions despite being in them - that is a higher rate of success than any other random proposal for him if he was loyal.

Jojo vs Axl is a hunch, yet jojo's mission pulling rejections from both sides of the alignment makes me believe he's very unaware of people's alignments.

Scry said Troll, so Troll is on the list always.

Duck, is a weird case. He's the one I'm least sure about, but he seemed to be sneaking through most of the game, mostly unnoticed. His voting pattern is nothing extraordinary, his comments neutral and rare. This could be a "not too interested in game" behavior, but he seems pretty active elsewhere. An argument based on metagame, but an argument that convinced me either way.

[Duck999]

It's mainly that I did not expect anywhere near this much activity. I find it hard to keep up with some of the things going on.

[jojolagger]

1) At least two of those that accepted are loyal - Tanar/Duck/Logic can only have at most 1 minion -

That statement is false. Actually, up to 3 minions accepted.
Axl could be minion, and some two of tanar/duck/logic could be the two minions in Bag Two.
This case would strongly imply that Eloel was the 2nd minion in Bag One, and mean that Troll is loyal.

2) At least two minions, Troll and one of Eonas/Jojo rejected the proposal (yes 1 and 2 mean the same thing)

Again, not certain. That up to 3 minions possibly accepted means you can't say for sure 2 minions rejected.

The voting pattern for Eonas seemed particularly interesting, since he rejected both the starting missions despite being in them - that is a higher rate of success than any other random proposal for him if he was loyal.

I have been making that argument for days and nobody's been listening.

I still think Eonas is a minion. However, I'll admit I must consider all possible worlds here.

While by no means a final list, by guess on minions currently is:
Eonas, jojo (oberon), Troll and Duck.

Wrong on at the very least the count of me, quite possibly others.

[Rofltrollcopter]

Wait, at risk of being Mr. Obvious, I have to ask: why did you reject your own team, Troll?

Lex-Kat's public declaration of 'I'm going to approve and I hope it fails' made me nervous. In that world, if the 4 people on the team accepted it, and the minions know one person was going to approve it no matter what, if there is a minion on the team only one other person outside the mission needs to approve of it, I got scared.

Besides, having missions get rejected doesn't cost the good guys anything. I reasonably trust Tanar, who gets to make the next mission, as does most of the table at this point.

Also welcome back Duck, any thoughts?

[Duck999]

Also welcome back Duck, any thoughts?

Yes, actually. A rejected mission does cause good guys to lose something. If you play off the philosophy rejecting a mission isn't ever a problem, then you run into a big problem. The good guys may be forced to accept a mission that they don't want to because we can't reject five missions in a row.