Erfworld 62 - Page 56

[Overdark]

Transfer two dwagons from each neighboring B hex to whichever hex is being attacked, and have a warlord move over to coordinate. Full stack, leadership bonus, element of surprise maintained, and LEEEEEROY JENKINS.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Remember: If the Bats are moving, Stanley's turn is over. If stanley's turn is over, there is no shuffeling of Dwagons.

Hamster's original plan called for the wounded Dwagons to be shilelded by a ring of "fresh" Dwagons. That plan was constructed under the momentary (thanks Wanda) misconception that Ansom has the same intelligence that Parson does.

Now, there is no reason for the Wounded Dwagons to be in the middle of the hex. By placing all the unwounded dragons in a ring it gives the appearance that theres something in the middle worth protecting. He suckers all of Ansoms forces into a futile assault against 3 sacrificial Dragons, Leading Ansoms armies into a bad position for Parson's next turn.

[nooblade]

Well now we just have to wait until Saturday to figure out what's really going on, hopefully Parson will update us in a klog though. I guess it makes sense that the dwagons would take less damage from attacks after they're fully rested, but I also want to know what's going to happen if Ansom concentrates all of his forest-capable forces and air units on the same stack of dwagons all turn to get to the weaker ones, since Stanley's troops are effectively frozen.

The big thing I want to know is, how does Ansom expect to get close enough to hit any of the warlords with the pliers while they're both on air units? Plus, what is he going to do to retreat if even one warlord survives that can selectively attack his stack with some dwagons to finish him.

[gatitcz]

Er, it's Ansom's turn....

Exactly. Parson can't move anything outside a hex out of turn, even though all those dwagons are fresh. On the next turn, he should be able to attack with the B dwagons as well and have enough move to get back to the city. Therefore, Parson had to know Ansom would have to attack, though I don't know if he reckoned with the Arkenpliars.

The way the game seems to work, I think Ansom's intelligence should be sound. The bats should have found all the dwagons inside those six hexes. Ansom knows the wounded dwagons flew to the seventh hex. But he doesn't know what else is there...

I see three possibilities:

1) Those B dragons carried support troops who all moved to the center hex.
2) Fresh dwagons are hiding in that hex. The wounded dwagons are interspersed on the outside hexes, or they really are all on the inside with unseen dwagons.
3) I really like this one - too smart for your own good. The dwagons aren't there. "We surmise that the wounded dwagons Stanley withdrew had low remaining move. They needed a safe hiding place. Hence, this fort formation." The wounded dwagons actually flew somewhere else, but Ansom assumes otherwise. "That'll eat up about all of our move, boss." Suddenly, a whole bunch of troops with low move are in the middle of a circle of dwagons, separated from the rest of the column. And Ansom's gone in there with the Arkenpliers to get nonexistant warlords.

Edit: Crap. In the five minutes I spend writing this post, three other people say the exact same thing. Ah, well. I guess the only thing I can add is that Parson had 27 B-dwagons, enough to have stacks of five in three hexes and stacks of four in the other three. So no reason for a three-dwagon hex (as if TRAP wasn't obvious).

[Overdark]

Hmm, anyone else think all the injured dragons are the ones forming the circle and the fresh dragons are in the middle? Since Ansom has no way of knowing, he'll just assume it's the weak ones being protected and walk right into a lot of healthy dragons

No. Without a warlord in the stack to direct the Dwagons, they would all try to attack the bat and therefore all be revealed. The Wounded Dragons would have been eaisly seen for what they were.

[Peptuck]

I have this strange feeling that the center hex is actually empty, leaving the counter attack surrounded by dwagons once they punch through.

A terrifyingly clever idea.

We know Parson's original plan took into account that Ansom would have the same level of intelligence he had with the linked casters' board, but now he's altered it. He has to know Ansom would try to catch the wounded dwagons once they departed.

Now, does he know that Ansom's Arkenpliers can turn Uncroaked into dust? Did he deliberately set this up to lure Ansom himself into a trap?

What's got me is that I'm actually a little worried about Parson's plan here; once Ansom and his crew got over the shock, they settled right down into figuring out what was out there and where the Dwagons fled to, and now they're moving to attack, possibly with intelligence that Parson didn't know they could have had.

Then again, I keep imagining Tzneetch where Parson is, watching Ansom make all these counterattack plans and smiling, rubbing his palms together as he whispers "Just as planned...."

[Nemo2342]

The big thing I want to know is, how does Ansom expect to get close enough to hit any of the warlords with the pliers while they're both on air units? Plus, what is he going to do to retreat if even one warlord survives that can selectively attack his stack with some dwagons to finish him.

Ansom is taking a gamble. He's going to risk almost everything (all his forest units plus himself) to take out what he believes to be 3 warlords and a large number of weakened dragons. It hasn't even occurred to him that this is a trap, or that any warlords could survive if it wasn't. So he's not planning on retreat, he's planning on a glorious victory (complete with more Ewok victory music, no doubt).

[Scientivore]

Wha...Oh! Oh my. I think I understand now. Spoilerific speculation abounds below.

Spoiler

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I hadn't properly visualized the obvious: even with Vinny's bats, they can't scout the center hex. It was Parson's original plan to put the wounded A dwagons there, and Ansom is assuming it because it's smart, but Parson changed his plan to account for his enemy's poor intel.

My guess: Parson has the right number of dwagons in the center...but they're his strongest B dwagons, all at full health. The wounded A dwagons are interspersed with the weaker B dwagons throughout the five hexes that Ansom won't attack because Parson left the far one obviously the weakest. (In the original batcam view, Vinny couldn't see the GK units' stats because his bat couldn't, even though it was something that a warlord would normally be able to see.) It was a simulated n00b mistake, drawing a bulls-eye on the far hex by pretending to underestimate how much force his opponent could bring to bear on it.

Parson is sacrificing those three weak dwagons to absolutely pwn an incredibly valuable strike force: a very small number of Ansom's very best units. Anything less won't have enough move to go through the far hex to help them out in the center. Best of all, whether Parson knows it or not, Ansom will almost certainly fall for the trap this time because of the advantage that the Arkenpliers would give him against the uncroaked warlords.

I swear, there were only a couple of posts there when I started writing that...

[Aimbot]

I have this strange feeling that the center hex is actually empty, leaving the counter attack surrounded by dwagons once they punch through.

Ding ding ding.

[Ganurath]

"That'll eat up about all our move, boss."

Feint or not, Ansom and Forest-Capables will be surrounded by dwagons at the start of Stanlie's next turn, completely helpless, and probably still wounded from the initial push through the rear dwagons. It looks like Wanda's dungeon is going to have a new guest, and Stanlie will get his second Arkentool.

[hamstard4ever]

Aw, looks like I'm late to the party. And I registered just to speculate on the center hex, too.

toma02 covered it already. Parson could see all the enemy units and knew that they could hit the rear of the "fort", so he originally planned on spreading the B dwagons out and hoping that 4 would be enough to survive. But then Wanda pointed out Ansom had no Lookamancy, so rather than gambling on a stack of 4 being enough he decided to fake Ansom out and hide the wounded dwagons elsewhere, sacrificing a stack of 3.

One interesting thing though: it looks like they can't see the dwagons at all without actually moving a unit into the hex they're hiding in. So even after they kill the 3 bait dwagons they won't be able to see the center hex until they try attacking. Will the alliance be smart enough to use another sacrificial bat before charging in with everything they have? Ansom and Vinnie both seem to be pretty reluctant about using bats that way, and they're already pretty sure of what they're facing in the center hex. If there's not actually anything there, they won't lose anything... except moves. The only units capable of attacking the center hex are fliers and forest units, and getting into the center hex is almost guaranteed to use up the last move of whatever Ansom sends in. So suppose he sends in his remaining forest units with Jillian and the Archons as air support, only to find nothing there... now all his most valuable air units are cut off from most of his air power at the start of Stanley's next turn, with ALL of Stanley's dwagons at full health and in position to attack.

[CommandNC]

I don't think this is quite as much of a gamble on Ansoms part as some think. Remember, he is using his weaker units to punch in through the 3 dragons, then using the few strong units that have enough move to reach the central hex to attack. If he is careful and sends a single scout to actually probe the central hex before committing to the final assault with his strong units (assuming himself for pliers + Jillian with gwiffons), he will easily evade the trap.

If he does charge the central hex headlong, and finds it trapped (several B dwagons stashed in central hex should be sufficient to wipe out whatever force Ansom can muster for attacking it), he can either disengage (Can he? Situation with warlord manned units attacking non warlord stacked units has been covered, but warlords vs warlords? Either way since Parson CAN control the warlords during defense of the hex, he will only lose one to arkenpliers before moving the other two out of harms way), or attempt to wipe whatever trap is there. In which case he stands to lose Arkenpliers.

Either way, Ansom *will* end up with almost no units that can traverse the heavy forest after the assault on the 3 dwagons. So Parson will have ability to finish off the siege units and do some additional damage to the column next turn.

Eeeevil. Love it.

[Peptuck]

Hold on, I just had an idea.

We know Parson was planning to ambush Ansom himself when he went out to rescue Zamussels, right?

Now, in order to do that, they'd need troops in position to ambush Ansom when he headedout, ergo, he had troops already set up and ready to jump Ansom, most likely the same dwagons in his excursion force. Now, if Ansom had no idea these dwagons could have been the same in the possible ambush force, he might assume they came all they way from Gobwin Knob, which is why he said they had little move left.

What I think happened is that Parson did exactly what we're surmising: he moved the wounded dwagons away from the center hex, and withdrew them much further back, and deliberately set up his dwagon platter to make it look like he was hiding a group of wounded dwagons with low move. Its just he used the forces from his plotted ambush to allow him to get in close while still having the move he needs to get his wounded dwagons well away from the enemy's inevitable reprisal.

Deception is the heart of all warfare, and if Parson did what I think he did, he's proving to be the master of it.

[tomaO2]

Oh, and to all that think of fresh dwagons in the middle... If you look at the board and count all the dwagon dots you will see there are 27 of them. Parson has already stated that there are 27 dwagons to do this circling.

It also gives the color of them though... I can see several pink, green and red dwagons there. All three of which are A class Dwagons and should have been used to attack. Especially the Red Dwagons. Which I feel are the most powerful overall of the types. So perhaps the strong Center is valid after all and the uncroked warlords are using their ability to not engage the scouts and thus not be spotted?

Hard to say for sure. It would be so much cooler if there WERE a bunch of strong units in the center though. It depends on how scouting works though. If the scouts can see all units then there are 27 guarding and that is the number Parson intended to use.

Can't wait to see.

[anamiac]

Remember the last line of the last comic? "For Starters."

Stanley has already guessed what Ansom will do on his turn. I'm willing to bet that it involves tricking Ansom into further worsening his position. Therefore, it's almost a sure bet that Ansom and Vinnie's evaluation of Parson's forces are not only incorrect, but leading them to dangerous conclusions.

I think the uncroaked comment at the end of this strip has less to do with the pliers and more to do with the fact that uncroaked warlords can't think and plan as well as regular warlords -- they can only carry out orders. Ansom is giving stanley full credit for the battle, but knows that Stanley isn't really that good at battle, and thus is underestimating the situation.

And Stanley isn't trying to level up his warlords. At the end of last turn, he didn't even know how warlords leveled up.

[JazzManJim]

Awesome and awesome.

I'm looking at something I"m not sure if anyone's pointed out yet.

Let's assume that each hex contains only three Dwagons and that the "weak" hex is weak because it's total unit strength is lower than the others.

That means that somewhere out there is a stack of six Dwagons Ansom doesn't even know exist.

Ansom's about to drive to the center of the Party Platter because he thinks he can re-croak three of Stanley's warlords. I have the distinct feeling that his future is going to be far worse then we may think. When he hits that center hex, he's going to be low on move, mostly ringed by Dwagons, and there's going to be a huge stack coming in very hot.

And Parson will have the whole armada of "A" Dwagons fully healed and able to hit the ambush point, too.

EDIT: Nevermind all that. I took a good look at the battle map - at least what I could see of it, and each of the other hexes have 4 or more Dwagons in each one.

My eyes aren't the greatest, but from what I can see, here's the count. From the hex closest to the column and moving clockwise: 6,5,4,3,4,5 (24 total). That's a pretty standard layout if you expect an attack from the front.

[Ganurath]

Good point toma02, especially when you consider we haven't seen any blue or black dwagons in this operation, but we know they exist from when Parson said they were the bad guys (forgot which comic.)

[CommandNC]

I dunno, Ansom is holding the pliers in the last panel. Which he himself admits to be the superb anti-uncroacked weapon. Made me think that he is planning on using them on warlords. In Ansoms point of view, whatever stashed in central hex is almost dead. Under that premise, if he does punch through the weak hex, it wont matter how smart the warlords in the central hex are. They cant run if not on their turn. They'd get slaughtered.

[kreszantas]

well there are 2 items that are indeed changed but to what degree, 1) the item #4 on the Klog 6. States that the units heal at dawn the beginning of Ansoms turn. 2) On this page in panel 7 the "sheRoy" says that if they allow them to heal at dawn then the next attack is worse than the first.

So the turn cycle seems to be a little out of order here, which is the correct answer because that will depend on how many dwagons could be involved in this "potential ruse" or if Parson stuck with the party platter base hex plan. Parson could be in a world of hurt and Stanley would BOOP him up.

The fog will disappear as they approach the other hex's therefore this could be a larger mistake than first realized.

[hamstard4ever]

Let's assume that each hex contains only three Dwagons and that the "weak" hex is weak because it's total unit strength is lower than the others.

The alliance's map has markers for the dwagons and all the other hexes show 4-6 dwagons. There are as many dwagon markers on the map as there are "B" dwagons according to Parson's klog.

One thing I just realized though: if Parson's hiding the wounded "A" dwagons somewhere other than the center hex, that means they're still technically exposed and vulnerable. Stanley is probably NOT going to be too happy about that even if Parson tries explaining it. I think Parson might be out of the frying pan and into the fire, at least until the end of turn...

[Phunbaba]

Now as I understand it Warlords can selectively engage. Meaning to my mind that you could have any number of things hiding in that hex of forest but your opponent only got to see the 3 Dwagons that your warlord sent up to engage the scout. If Parson did have forest capable units with enough move to reach that back hex, maybe from the failed ambush attempt, they could be in for a surprise that way. Of course I'm making assumptions about what the scout could see, and making assumptions is bad. I'm sure Parson asked, in detail, about how scouting works.

[gatitcz]

If he is careful and sends a single scout to actually probe the central hex before committing to the final assault with his strong units (assuming himself for pliers + Jillian with gwiffons), he will easily evade the trap.

Ansom's still using up almost all his move and getting separated from the column for only three dwagons. Ansom's assuming he can get away from the remaining dwagons next turn if he croaks the 20 or so he thinks are in the middle, but if he has to deal with about 45 next turn instead of 25, that may be a problem.

Peptuck, interesting if I understand you right, but I'm not sure why Stanley wouldn't have recalled anyone sent out to that earlier ambush.

[JazzManJim]

The alliance's map has markers for the dwagons and all the other hexes show 4-6 dwagons. There are as many dwagon markers on the map as there are "B" dwagons according to Parson's klog.

One thing I just realized though: if Parson's hiding the wounded "A" dwagons somewhere other than the center hex, that means they're still technically exposed and vulnerable. Stanley is probably NOT going to be too happy about that even if Parson tries explaining it. I think Parson might be out of the frying pan and into the fire, at least until the end of turn...

I edited the original post. My old eyes don't work the best this time of day. :)

Actually, I've suspected that Parson has secreted those Dwagons somewhere nearby. The problem for Ansom is that, even though the Dwagons may be vulnerable, Ansom has no way of finding them except by some flier happening on them by chance (and I bet that won't even happen if the Warlords are with them and they simply don't engage any fliers as they go by).

[Little Raven]

Stanley is probably NOT going to be too happy about that even if Parson tries explaining it. I think Parson might be out of the frying pan and into the fire, at least until the end of turn...

Stanley won't be happy if the dwagons are discovered and croaked. But assuming they aren't found, he won't care.

Remember, to Stanley, little things like strategy don't matter. They're details. Stanley has no time for details...he's on a mission from the Titans. As long as Parson delivers, Stanley won't care how he does it.

[CommandNC]

He's still using up almost all his move and getting separated from the column for only three dwagons. Ansom's assuming he can get away from the remaining dwagons next turn if he croaks the 20 or so he thinks are in the middle, but if he has to deal with about 45 next turn instead of 25, that may be a problem.

Peptuck, interesting if I understand you right, but I'm not sure why Stanley wouldn't have recalled anyone sent out to that earlier ambush.

Ansom doesn't have to start moving himself + Jillian away from column until AFTER the 3 dwagons are dead. There is absolutely no need for him to be near that fight when it happens. He can move himself when he feels like it during his turn. So if he pokes the central hex with a single bat prior to committing himself into battle, he'll know its a trap/empty hex. In that case he'll have a still rather powerful group ready to pounce the hiding stack. Then he'll simply need to scout a large area with bats to find the hidden wounded dwagons and wipe them out. Hopefully he wont have that much foresight and/or moves. Otherwise he can still turn this into a victory.

EDIT: But yes, the forest walkers are doomed. They'll get sacrificed fighting the 3 dwagons with no way to get back by the end of their turn.

[PlasticSoldier]

Then again, I keep imagining Tzneetch where Parson is, watching Ansom make all these counterattack plans and smiling, rubbing his palms together as he whispers "Just as planned...."

Who's tzneetch and can you explain that comment.

[The Old Hack]

There's a dwagon missing. Parson had 27 B-dwagons in his original plan. Probably the idea was to place them 5, 5, 5 in the three closest hexes and 4, 4, 4 in the three remotest. Removing one from the furthest hex to make it more attractive to attack seems a logical explanation. But I still wonder about that last dwagon... where did he put it? I don't know why, but that missing dwagon is nagging at me...

[KillerCardinal]

I have this strange feeling that the center hex is actually empty, leaving the counter attack surrounded by dwagons once they punch through.

Hehe, that idea reminds me of my favorite tactic in stratego. Put the bombs in a classic protection formation around a 7 instead of around the flag. The miner comes through and BAM, sorry, you DIDN'T just win the game!

However, my only problem with this idea is the question of where he put the wounded dwagons if that hex is empty.

[Scientivore]

The alliance's map has markers for the dwagons and all the other hexes show 4-6 dwagons. There are as many dwagon markers on the map as there are "B" dwagons according to Parson's klog.

One thing I just realized though: if Parson's hiding the wounded "A" dwagons somewhere other than the center hex, that means they're still technically exposed and vulnerable. Stanley is probably NOT going to be too happy about that even if Parson tries explaining it. I think Parson might be out of the frying pan and into the fire, at least until the end of turn...

This one is a spoiler for The Purloined Letter.

Spoiler

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How do you hide something so valuable that your enemy will go to any length to find it? By letting him hide it from himself. It's been a long time since I read The Purloined Letter, but IIRC a valuable document was hidden by disguising it as a worthless document, just some ordinary correspondence. Everyone ignored it because they already "knew" that it wasn't what they were looking for.

[Psychonaut]

So if he pokes the central hex with a single bat prior to committing himself into battle, he'll know its a trap/empty hex. In that case he'll have a still rather powerful group ready to pounce the hiding stack. Then he'll simply need to scout a large area with bats to find the hidden wounded dwagons and wipe them out. Hopefully he wont have that much foresight and/or moves.

I'm thinking he probably doesn't have enough move for the first part of that plan:

Panel 8:

"Air cover?" "Not a lotta that can reach."

Panel 9:

"Commander Zamussels is requesting to return to the column, but only she and five gwiffons, plus Charlie's Archons, have the move to reach the center of that hex."

There's a dwagon missing. Parson had 27 B-dwagons in his original plan. Probably the idea was to place them 5, 5, 5 in the three closest hexes and 4, 4, 4 in the three remotest. Removing one from the furthest hex to make it more attractive to attack seems a logical explanation. But I still wonder about that last dwagon... where did he put it? I don't know why, but that missing dwagon is nagging at me...

I'm counting 27 still. 6 on the hex closest to the column + (2*5) on the next closest hexes + (2*4) on the next closest hexes + 3 on the furthest away = 27.

Edit: Ah, I think I see now what you were saying. Look closely at the hex closest to the column - one of the dwagons is harder to see as it's brown and blends in a bit, but there's definitely 6 there.

[Ganurath]

Who's tzneetch and can you explain that comment.

No idea who Tzneetch is, but Tzeentch is one of the Four Ruinous Powers in the Warhammers games, the god of Magic and Chaos. He's supposedly all knowing, and is extremely manipulative of the minds of mortals.

The Old Hack: The frontmost hex has six dwagons.