Convoy VI: Run Bandit, Run

[Cuthalion]

I think "good" is a bit subjective. Any bandwagon starts with a single vote, or even just a comment, and then somehow gains momentum. A lot depends on context, and how things are worded. Take the number of votes on Extrail since he cast his vote. The wording of Extrail's vote was called out soon after by RainDragon (but no vote was cast for Extrail by RainDragon), and then followed by Duck999 agreeing and voting for Extrail, and now several people have agreed and voted for Extrail.

In my case, I was calling out an inactive player to show up, and was looking for their reaction. Others may have chosen, at that time, to jump onboard to target an inactive player (which I have seen happen). That would be the rock slide I was referring to. If you responded, we would have more data to work with. If a bandwagon to beat you into a pulp got rolling (and won) then you would be removed from play, and we would know what your roll was (and thus, more data, and maybe getting rid of a bear). Data is good. Getting rid of bears is good. Accidentally beating fellow truckers to a pulp, not so good.

Does that clear things up?

I like this response a lot, and it makes me feel pretty strongly about your villagerhood.

[Lex-Kat]

Night 1

In the middle of the night, three officers of the law, crept to the motel room of a suspect with the motel manager in tow. Keys jangling, the manager was just trying to find the right key, when a black Trans-Am roared through the parking lot, drawing everyone's attention while blaring his horn.

That little distraction was all it took, and their suspect was out the window and gone.

Spoiler: Results

Show

Someone was attacked in the night by the Bears, but The Bandit distracted them, and they made a clean getaway.

Day 2 Begins
(And will end in 48 hours)

Missed 1 Day
.

Missed 2 Days
.

Auto-Lynch Replacement(s)
GrayDeath

Spoiler: Player List

Show

#	Players	Handle	Cargo	eliminated	Role
07	GrayDeath	Milkyway	25,000 Liters of Milk	Day 1	Trucker
	~~~~~~~~	~~~~~~~~	~~~~~~~~	~~~~~~~~	~~~~~~~~
01	Ramsus	Wayward Son	Load of 1967 Chevy Impalas
02	kgato503	Big Cat	Asserted Pet Toys
03	Requilac	The Rabid Goat	Goats, Rabies Vaccines, and/or the Crown Jewels of England
04	BasketOfPuppies	Suicide Dog	Gasoline
05	Cuthalion	Reputation	"Time itself, because why not?"
06	AvatarVecna	Primal Dan	Halloween Masks
08	Xihirli	MalevolentKindness	Pixie-Baked Cakes
09	DeathSlayer7	The Mystery Machine	The Gang, plus Sam and Dean
10	Aventine	Big Bird	Extensive Variety of Birds
11	Kish	Airship	Smoke
12	Rakkoon	Big Rak	"Corn baby... just corn"
13	Logic	SpaceCamp	Little Plastic Spaceship Toys
14	Duck999	Ernie	Rubber Ducks
15	Murska	Optics	Fully functional MH-6 Little Bird scout helicopter
16	Rain Dragon	Rain Dragon	Assorted Parcels of Random Stuff.
17	Extrail	The Dragon Master	Roleplaying games, paraphernalia, and dragon related pieces Of all uses.

[rakkoon]

Go truckers!
logic for not switching his vote after Extrail defended themselves.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I wanted to apologize for inactivity D1. The MtG Prerelease was this weekend and I signed up for some tournaments that took all day Saturday and Sunday. I should be more active now.

Also, hey Ramsus I noticed that you only posted once yesterday at the very beginning. Any reason?

[Ramsus]

It was Day 1. As we really don't know much on Day 1 I didn't feel like putting much effort in. *shrug*
I'd put in a vote right now, but I'm heading off to sleep and have a headache so, not an ideal time.

[Murska]

Good going, Baner.

This seems too eager.

Hmm. BasketofPuppies had an immediate vote to start the day and never changed it, despite clearly being around near the end with bandwagons forming (the main one of which was on an innocent). Why?

EDIT: Noted that he did sort of explain already today. He did have time to post my quote there though, so I guess I'll stay on for now.

[Logic]

Hmm. BasketofPuppies had an immediate vote to start the day and never changed it, despite clearly being around near the end with bandwagons forming (the main one of which was on an innocent). Why?

EDIT: Noted that he did sort of explain already today. He did have time to post my quote there though, so I guess I'll stay on for now.

I was going to flag this same behavior. So far, I think this was the most suspicious post of day 1.

Rain Dragon for a vote that definitely will be struck through later.

This seems too eager.

So, Murska, I agree with you, and think BasketofPuppies has some explaining to do.

Meanwhile:

Go truckers!
logic for not switching his vote after Extrail defended themselves.

You may want to more clearly read what I wrote:

I stick by my Extrail vote from earlier, but I am inclined to agree with Xihirli: it looks more newbish than opportunist. I am willing to switch off if Extrail shows up to defend themselves.

"Willing to" is not the same as "going to." I suppose I should have said the extra caveat that the defense had to sound reasonable to me, but I thought that part was a given. I was not convinced by Extrail's defense of himself: it was not convincing that it was only from a newbie townie's perspective,m so my vote stayed put.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I didn’t change my vote because I didn’t agree with any of the bandwagons. Early wagons are great ways for wolves to split the town apart and to get some free kills.

[Duck999]

I wholeheartedly agree and don’t expect to keep my vote on Graydeath all day.

I know Xihirli might have just missed when the end of the day was, but this was posted about 3 hours before the day was supposed to (and did) end. I'm not sure why you would say this without just changing votes then. For lack of anything better than this, Xihirli.

[Requilac]

Umm, I really don’t have any good idea of who to vote for. ... so, why not go for duck999? If anyone else provides a good reason for me to change my vote I shall.

[kgato503]

Hmmm... GrayDeath's death was unfortunate. From what I can tell, they got singled out due to (accidentally) ignoring Lex-kat's request about AU timeline rolls (and that is what I am going to be calling the aborted first round of this game, because why not? ). From there, we had Extrail's vote and remark (which spawned its own bandwagon). It makes sense that Extrail would not change their vote from Graydeath (because that would cause THEM to be taken out instead), but there were still three others who did not change their votes. Any of you want to explain your reasoning for not switching things up, especially after Lex-kat made it clear that it was not a hard and fast rule? After all, a flub like that really doesn't seem indicative of bearness one way or the other.

For the time being, I will vote rakkoon. They voted for GrayDeath, and did not change their vote after it was revealed to both be an accident, and not that big a deal. Furthermore, I feel the need to point out that they voted for another player, based on not changing a vote after the votee defended themselves (which is similar to what they (rakkoon) did).

[Ramsus]

I'll vote for Requilac since we should at least try to vote non-randomly on day 2. (Though honestly yeah, I would love some good logic to vote for someone than is better than this too.)

[Rain Dragon]

I don't have real suspects yet. I shall poke one of the quieter people for opinions. Kish

I don't think the logic on Logic is one I agree with.

In addition to what Kgato said, Rakkoon was one of the earlier ones on the Gray Death wagon and kinda soon after it started.
Murska and Logic have good points about BoP.

As for the duck vote, do you have a reason or is it random, Requilac?

[Aventine]

By my count Xihirli did save Extrail, though I would expect a wolf to be less obvious about things if they're wolf buddies.

I'll poke Deathslayer for being right in the middle of the GrayDeath rush and not talking yet today. (yes, yes pot calling the kettle black on the last bit.)

[Xihirli]

If you mean this that's not why I voted for him. I voted because avatar had three quick votes on them and graydeath happened to be the third voter on it. He also happened to already have two votes on him so I tied it up at the time.

Deathslayer for being the third vote on a counterwagon.

[Cuthalion]

I'll vote for Requilac since we should at least try to vote non-randomly on day 2. (Though honestly yeah, I would love some good logic to vote for someone than is better than this too.)

I'm having a bit of trouble trying to read his post. Surface level, I like it, but at the same time I totally remember saying stuff like that when I was relatively new to WW and was like "hurh hurh this will make me look like a villager."

Don't want to vote at this point, but not a wagon I would argue against strongly.

[Requilac]

As for the duck vote, do you have a reason or is it random, Requilac?

There’s not really a reason behind it if I am being honest. I am most likely going to change it, but that was more of a placeholder vote In case the night phase came and the others remained quiet. The first day and night proved inconclusive, and we hardly learned much of anything. So when it comes to lynch votes arbitrary guesses are the best we have (that is what makes up WW at the end of the day though I guess).

[Rain Dragon]

There’s not really a reason behind it if I am being honest. I am most likely going to change it, but that was more of a placeholder vote In case the night phase came and the others remained quiet. The first day and night proved inconclusive, and we hardly learned much of anything. So when it comes to lynch votes arbitrary guesses are the best we have (that is what makes up WW at the end of the day though I guess).

(Underlining mine)

Was wondering. Idk, though...

So, as for the underlined stuff, on the one hand you can view the entire game that way and certainly most day ones but the game seems to be starting to start move away from the more clearly arbitrary guesses toward the ones where people explain and discuss things. You can look back on it later and view these guesses as relatively arbitrary. The more discussion there is, the harder it is for wolves to hide I think, so. More than half the day's gone, if I'm reading the time right. What do you think of the current votes? Do you think there's anything that might be odd or that you agree with or disagree with?

[Requilac]

(Underlining mine)

Was wondering. Idk, though...

So, as for the underlined stuff, on the one hand you can view the entire game that way and certainly most day ones but the game seems to be starting to start move away from the more clearly arbitrary guesses toward the ones where people explain and discuss things. You can look back on it later and view these guesses as relatively arbitrary. The more discussion there is, the harder it is for wolves to hide I think, so. More than half the day's gone, if I'm reading the time right. What do you think of the current votes? Do you think there's anything that might be odd or that you agree with or disagree with?

So far I am favoring the vote for Rakoon now but was waiting to see what everyone else’s observations where. These where my opinions on the other lynch votes.

1) There really isn’t anything out of the ordinary for someone to keep a lynch vote after the target defended themselves so Logic doesn’t seem like the best choice. Not that I am not suspicious of course, but I don’t believe that action (or lack of) signaled much of anything

2) It seems unfair to vote for Basket of Puppies just because he didn’t bandwagon, especially by the fact that I did the same thing but nobody accused me of anything.

3) Xihirli seems a little suspicious for sure, but her folly seems like it could just be a mistake (she would be my second guess though if rakoon provides a good defense).

4) The main reason Kish and deathslayer were voted was just to poke at them, so I didn’t quite feel the need to jump into action (I could try to pressure them for information I suppose but I don’t have confidence that we would learn much).

Murska I must admit was also someone I planned on targeting because of her reasoning. They said “ BasketofPuppies had an immediate vote to start the day and never changed it, despite clearly being around near the end with bandwagons forming (the main one of which was on an innocent).” Think carefully about this statement. He believes BasketofPuppies is suspicious because he didn’t join bandwagon against an innocent target. It almost seemed like he was upset with BoP for not lynching an innocent. This is raising some major red flags.

[BasketOfPuppies]

Hey Requiliac I appreciate you standing up for me, however you got my pronouns wrong. It’s they/them, not he/his.

Also, I don’t like how silent half of the player list is being. Refusing to talk only helps wolves.

Aventine, got anything to say?

[Murska]

Murska I must admit was also someone I planned on targeting because of her reasoning. They said “ BasketofPuppies had an immediate vote to start the day and never changed it, despite clearly being around near the end with bandwagons forming (the main one of which was on an innocent).” Think carefully about this statement. He believes BasketofPuppies is suspicious because he didn’t join bandwagon against an innocent target. It almost seemed like he was upset with BoP for not lynching an innocent. This is raising some major red flags.

I believe you're misreading the point.

A villager has no other way to influence the game aside from the lynch vote and the discussion around it. Therefore, one would assume a villager to care greatly about who gets lynched, and pay attention to the discussion. I do realize many people don't do this, unfortunately. However, in BoP's case, there was an early vote followed by a late comment. The comment means they did pay attention, but not changing their vote means they did not particularly care to steer the lynch. With the lynch already pointed at an innocent, that fits a wolf profile - they'd want to keep an eye on the situation but they'd not put skin in the game if things were already looking good. A townie who doesn't like the lynch wagon should be arguing against it and pushing another wagon, a townie who likes the lynch wagon should be jumping aboard with jubilant cheer. Only wolves don't care.

[Deathslayer7]

By my count Xihirli did save Extrail, though I would expect a wolf to be less obvious about things if they're wolf buddies.

I'll poke Deathslayer for being right in the middle of the GrayDeath rush and not talking yet today. (yes, yes pot calling the kettle black on the last bit.)

Sure. People I'm most suspicious of right now in order.

Xihirli
Ramsus
Rakoon/Aventine
BasketofPuppies

[Kish]

I'm wondering about Logic's attitude toward Murska; wolf conspirators, wolf trying to (as FC once put it) sheep someone he believes is town...

But I'll vote BasketOfPuppies for now. If they're a wolf, that will--I'm not going to say clear, but bump both Murska and Logic way down my personal suspect list.

- - - Updated - - -

Requilac, what I think you're missing here is: It's almost always better for town to kill someone than no one, because the wolves can just sit tight and win (by reliably killing someone who's town almost every night) if town doesn't kill people. In the absence of active suspicion, feeling neutral toward someone is a reason to vote for them.

That said, I could believe BoP simply didn't think their vote was going to make a difference, especially first day.

[rakkoon]

I kept voting for graydeath because I like having bandwagons, this gives people smarter than me something to analyse. In this case not to my advantage but we need information. Logic just pinged my radar.

@kish: explain to sheep someone again please?

[Kish]

Sorry, didn't mean to be confusing. FC was a wolf in that game and he knew Murska was a mason; his strategy was to follow Murska's lead publicly, outspokenly, and constantly, as long as Murska didn't actually start a wagon on a wolf.

[Logic]

As Kish said, sheeping is a wolf tactic to follow the lead of a townie. This is sometimes also called "parroting" and "pocketing," though pocketing has a little bit more to it than that.

Deathslayer, can you clarify your stance on your suspects? I get the BoP shade, but for the others I want to hear your case.

I still have Extrail on my short-list of suspects, but I think BoP will more likely turn out to be a wolf than the former.

[Ramsus]

Moving off Requilac because they just seem "new" and not nefarious. Moving onto Deathlsayer7 for voting for someone and making a list of "suspicious" people without explaining why anyone, even the person they're voting for, is on that list. (And that list including me.)

[Deathslayer7]

GrayDeath listen to Lex.

I don't feel great about the votes of the people who agreed with me on Graydeath but I see Extrail's vote as more "newbie" than "bearwolf."

I meant the bloodthirsty bit.

I wholeheartedly agree and don’t expect to keep my vote on Graydeath all day.

Oh. Well forget about my vote possibly changing then.

Deathslayer for being the third vote on a counterwagon.

These are all the posts by Xihirli. Not much substance to them. Not much discussion either. Beyond that, I wasn't even the nail in Graydeath's coffin. That would be Extrail and Duck999. What bothers me the most though is they had a chance to switch but didn't. It wouldn't have done much good at that point, but if you don't think Graydeath is worth lynching, then they should have changed their vote and not "wait".

They then point at me for no reason except I'm the third vote on a counterwagon on day 1? Seems wolfish to me. If it was a single vote, fine, but the fact she did it after Aventine did it bothers me as well. It's all the little things she did that adds up.

I'll explain the others later tonight when I have time.

[Logic]

These are all the posts by Xihirli. Not much substance to them. Not much discussion either. Beyond that, I wasn't even the nail in Graydeath's coffin. That would be Extrail and Duck999. What bothers me the most though is they had a chance to switch but didn't. It wouldn't have done much good at that point, but if you don't think Graydeath is worth lynching, then they should have changed their vote and not "wait".

They then point at me for no reason except I'm the third vote on a counterwagon on day 1? Seems wolfish to me. If it was a single vote, fine, but the fact she did it after Aventine did it bothers me as well. It's all the little things she did that adds up.

I'll explain the others later tonight when I have time.

Who bothers you by having a chance to switch? I'm going to assume for a moment you mean Xihirli until you clarify, but in Extrail's case, no matter his alignment, voting for Graydeath was the right move. I'll have to give a stronger look at Duck, but you may be on to something with Xihirli. As far as I'm concerned, Extrail is in the same spot he was when he made the bloodthirsty post.

Something I forgot to bring up earlier: Rakkoon, why exactly are you voting for me? Please point something out. I'd love to hear it, and I'm sure town needs to hear it as well.

[BasketOfPuppies]

@Murska: had I changed my vote it wouldn’t have changed anything. Since I’m on mobile, I have to type out the [color] stuff to vote, which takes time. I didn’t want to waste time doing that when it wouldn’t have mattered anyways.

- - - Updated - - -

Screw it, gonna die if I don’t claim anyways. I’m the seer/fool and I scried Aventine as Deputy Cletus Hogg.