WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Murska]

Well, I'm kind of questioning the purpose of a pressure wagon where we don't first wait for the target to actually be around and write their thoughts.

[JeenLeen]

"Sir if you were wishing to play another hand, I am starting another one here. I am fluent in card interpretation."

"Nah, I'm good", says the sir as he slowly backs away from security. He deftly retrieves his Torrential Tribute from the table.

Wasn't Persolus d1'd last game? I imagine that would be the reason.

Cazero

He did? Dang, I'm usually more mindful of that. Well, that makes sense.
Uh, back to AvatarVecna.
Sometimes wolves are willing to be patient D1, as wagons tend to ebb and flow as folk get bored. If AV is a wolf, might've just been playing chicken with us.

Well, I'm kind of questioning the purpose of a pressure wagon where we don't first wait for the target to actually be around and write their thoughts.

Good point, insofar as no reason to shift from Cazero to Persolus at this stage.

[corncobweb]

I'll note that I don't read any alignment indication from Illven noting MerelBlackbird being happy as a potential townread.

In Time Warp by AvatarVecna (MerelBlackbird's second game), MerelBlackbird said that they are happy when they are not wolf.

The next game, Hivemind by Rogan, MerelBlackbird was happy early on, but then got sad due to illness. Athedia read the early happiness as Town. MerelBlackbird turned out to be Wolf that game.

Now we're in MerelBlackbird's fourth game, and they're happy again.
I don't think that this clue on MerelBlackbird is a strong enough read to be worth posting on its own, but Illven and Athedia did at the time, so they posted it.

[MerelBlackbird]

Good afternoon!

I wanted to learn Blackjack, sad I missed this hand.

Anyway. Reads and observations. Starting right from the top.

• AV has a gun. What kind of gun? Just meaning the vote? Hmm.
• Yet another reference to the traditional D1 Snowblaze wagon... every game, wow.
• Where IS Persolus?
• RP around the game is really good, I'll get in on it at the end of this post.
• JeenLeen starts solving from the gate, I townread for the effort - but I know how smart he is.
• Illven seems her normal self, I'm wanting to townread her - but on D1 I still hold myself at high alert.
• Blackjack begins, courtesy of Athedia... new player's first post... etc. A lot of votes for AV. Speculation on whether Blackjack is a power. I say unlikely.
• Narrator death and thoughts on it... Not forgotten flavor text confirmed, but then what is it?
• JeenLeen still thinks Blackjack's a possible power thing. We'll see eventually.
• To Murska: Kraken was a dayvig in UPick 6 time warp, so it's possible that Illven's question was directed there for that reason.
• Illven's and Snowblaze's thoughts on my rampant enthusiasm. Yeah, I might have overdone it. But it's said now, no taking it back!
• corncobweb suggests it's a bad idea to visit him at night. I'll leave off pointing out all the possible permutations of a power that would cause such trouble. For now.
• Bladescape is himself. For the record, if a game ever rests on me and blade is a wolf, we'll be in trouble.
• CaoimhinTheCape has a point about the narrator.
• Hand end for Blackjack.
• JeenLeen's thoughts on Illven's reaction to my enthusiasm are interesting. I hadn't thought of Illven casting shade, mostly because the way she was posting seemed like her normal town self last game.
• Considering what's going on between Jeen and Kraken as they discuss Kraken's bandwagon and pocketing... probably not w/w.
• Illven's response to Jeen's response to her response to me... Hmm.
• Bladescape townreads me. Niceee.
• I missed another hand of Blackjack... and a lot of talk about the narrator still going on.
• Athedia presents her current state through roleplay, and it's good reasoning - spark conversation when you're on, then watch.
• #MakeWolvesFakeAgain!!
• Pressuring Cazero to come and play...
• Athedia's roleplay talking seems to have more in game observations than I can find.
• I WANT IN ON THE NEXT BLACKJACK ROUND.
• Hi ccw! Townreading you slightly even after Time Warp, but I don't trust myself on that XD.

Shortlist of semiconfident trs: AV, Jeen, ccw, bladescape, Kraken. Illven. Any other trs are even less confident.

Hmm... roleplay, roleplay, who/what/how should I roleplay?

Merel goes to the Blackjack table and addresses Athedia. "I don't suppose I could join the next hand? I've never played before, but I should like to learn."

[Lentrax]

Caps go down on the table.

“Yeah. Still willing to play.”

[Cuthalion]

this is a bit of a weird game to read; i don't mind the blackjack bit and assume it's probably relevant on some level but it's also just a completely different thing happening

i feel pretty good about merel from their entrance and general vibes; it's not a super long-lasting read but if they can sustain this (in terms of depth, not necessarily in terms of excitement) i'm happy there for now

murska and blade are reacting appropriately but not really adding anything new, i think kraken makes sense as a wagon and also hasn't really done anything ai but i'm not super bothered by them being voted

very thin v-read of cape for being the second pressure vote, but only if wolves are currently being wagoned

[Persolus]

Hello everyone! I'm Persolus and think that you shouldn't kill me first round.

[Apologies for missing the bit of play, I did an unexpected sleep-over, had a mental health moment, and did not *properly* look at this until now. Thankfully all my scumbuddies nudged me enough in the wolf chat to post here - I MEAN I FINALLY GOT AROUND TO IT]

Will have a look at thread and post thoughts.

[Snowblaze]

Morning.

About the only coherent thought I have is a townlean on Merel.

I should put together a vote count. Okay Caoimhin made one fairly recently I can just update that one.

Let'sGetKraken 2: Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat 1: Book Wombat
Athedia 1: AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna 4: Batcathat, Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Snowblaze 1: Let'sGetKraken
Persolus 1: Cazero
flat_footed 1: corncobweb
Cazero 4: Let'sGetKraken, CaoimhinTheCape, Murska, Illven
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

Eh. Sure. My vote isn't really doing much on Kraken but Cazero has enough pressure votes and I don't know that there are actual reasons behind the AV wagon (if someone has a case against them, please share!)

I will at some point try to find actual suspects.

[Batcathat]

Eh. Sure. My vote isn't really doing much on Kraken but Cazero has enough pressure votes and I don't know that there are actual reasons behind the AV wagon (if someone has a case against them, please share!)

While I can't speak for anyone else, for me it's very much a case of "nowhere better to put my vote at the moment". Out of the current wagons, I have pretty much no read on AV or Caz and I'm flipping between a very slight townread and an equally slight wolfread (mostly because a few posts felt a little pockety) on Kraken.

Outside of the wagons, I'm a little suspicious of Cao, but for pretty weak reasons (basically I found it a little odd that he suspected people for not being solvy enough on D1, when there's usually next to nothing to go on. I also thought him moving his vote around might be a wolf trying to find a good wagon, but I checked Cao's D1 votes in previous games in my sheet and jumping around seemed pretty frequent as both town and wolf, so probably NAI) so I'm not sure I wanna go there.

[Cazero]

Well, I'm kind of questioning the purpose of a pressure wagon where we don't first wait for the target to actually be around and write their thoughts.

Thoughts? From me? On day one?

Well. I don't think Athedia running some blackjack is a power thing.
A bit too early to be sure about what happened with flat.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Morning.

About the only coherent thought I have is a townlean on Merel.

I should put together a vote count. Okay Caoimhin made one fairly recently I can just update that one.

Let'sGetKraken 2: Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat 1: Book Wombat
Athedia 1: AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna 4: Batcathat, Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Snowblaze 1: Let'sGetKraken
Persolus 1: Cazero
flat_footed 1: corncobweb
Cazero 4: Let'sGetKraken, CaoimhinTheCape, Murska, Illven
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

Eh. Sure. My vote isn't really doing much on Kraken but Cazero has enough pressure votes and I don't know that there are actual reasons behind the AV wagon (if someone has a case against them, please share!)

I will at some point try to find actual suspects.

You have me voting twice there, probably because I forgot to cross out my first vote. Whoops.

I don't love the bolded paragraph, to be honest? It does feel a bit like "I know that one of the two wagons is a wolf and want a plausible reason not to switch." But I might be reading too much into it because the vote is staying on me, lol.

[bladescape]

You have me voting twice there, probably because I forgot to cross out my first vote. Whoops.

I don't love the bolded paragraph, to be honest? It does feel a bit like "I know that one of the two wagons is a wolf and want a plausible reason not to switch." But I might be reading too much into it because the vote is staying on me, lol.

If one of them was wolf Snow's vote would be there already.

- - - Updated - - -

If it helps y'all I actually think AV might be more in their townrange than wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

I also just want to keep AV around for Raisons

[Let'sGetKraken]

If one of them was wolf Snow's vote would be there already.

- - - Updated - - -

If it helps y'all I actually think AV might be more in their townrange than wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

I also just want to keep AV around for Raisons

New game plan: always vote for whoever snow is voting. If town, it's a good enough guess. If wolf, she is ruthlessly bussing them.

[Athedia]

"I believe most of you have spoken somewhat today, except one fine lady." Athedia looked pointedly at LadySerpentine, as if waiting for some response.

With some returning players and one so new Athedia might have checked to see if she was even allowed in the casino (if she had cared to check which she did not), a new round of cards started.

Athedia (Dealer):

🃅🃏

Spoiler: Illven

Show

🂡🂴

Spoiler: MerelBlackbird

Show

🂽🃍

Spoiler: Lentrax

Show

🂦🃄

As she dealt Athedia explained the basic rules of the game to Merel, leaving more complex instruction to the others around her.

"The goal of the game is to get a higher score than me, but not exceed 21. Aces count as either 1 or 11 whichever advantages you. Face cards are worth 10. Asking for a hit gives you another card. Once you all go bust, that is gone over 21 or stand, or stop asking for cards I will reveal my face down one. All my aces count as 11's and I must hit on a 16 or below and stand on a 17 or higher."

She set her last card face down as she spoke, indicating that the players may take actions as they wished.

"People are seeming overly willing to summarize the events of the past few hours, rather than analyze them. Do not take a recap as actual wisdom."

[AvatarVecna]

I can, begrudgingly, acknowledge that there is theoretical value in keeping me alive for at least a little while. I'm not happy about it, though.

[Murska]

I can, begrudgingly, acknowledge that there is theoretical value in keeping me alive for at least a little while. I'm not happy about it, though.

Do you have anything to do with what happened to flat?

[AvatarVecna]

Do you have anything to do with what happened to flat?

Nothing to do with me.

[Book Wombat]

I think the thing I'm most surprised about so far is the fact that playing cards have corresponding unicode characters.
Also, I wonder if the title of the game has something to do with the bastard mechanic or the lucky number.

[Murska]

Different special mechanic in play every day based on the number rolled? But for there to be any point we'd have to have ways to interact with it, either through PRs or by learning the rules over time.

[Athedia]

Different special mechanic in play every day based on the number rolled? But for there to be any point we'd have to have ways to interact with it, either through PRs or by learning the rules over time.

"Sometimes some folks play by different rules. Mayhaps someone's decisions in life change depending on the lucky number?"

Athedia looked up, able to focus on the room around the game after years of practice.

[Illven]

Alright, I am REALLY off my game today.

First off. Attach another water energy to Wartortle.

Second. I somehow didn't realize this was a bastard game, and thus Flat being murdered in cold blood makes ALOT more sense.

Three. Is Caedorus playing, or just a spectator? They joined the discord, but I don't see them on the player list? So I assume spectator. I just thought they were a late joiner.


Let's see.

I have no reads on Cuthalion, and Persolus. Especially since RL is affecting Persolus.

Promised I wouldn't wolf read Ti for low activity so....

Yeah, that's it for now.

[flat_footed]

Is Caedorus playing, or just a spectator? They joined the discord, but I don't see them on the player list? So I assume spectator. I just thought they were a late joiner.

Caedorus and Logic are spectators.

[Illven]

caedorus and logic are spectators.

.....

......

.......

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm going back to Vote: Illven


Let'sGetKraken (2): Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
Athedia (1): AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna (4): Batcathat, Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): Let'sGetKraken
Persolus (1): Cazero
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, , Murska, Illven
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

[Murska]

I wish that the people we're pressuring would get here and talk to us. But I guess it's better to target someone who isn't here than someone who is if we don't have any strong suspicions either way.

[Athedia]

Alright, I am REALLY off my game today.

First off. Attach another water energy to Wartortle.

Athedia laid down another card in front of Illven.

Spoiler: Illven

Show

🂡🂴🂸

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'm going back to Vote: Illven


Let'sGetKraken (2): Snowblaze, bladescape
Batcathat (1): Book Wombat
Athedia (1): AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna (4): Batcathat, Athedia, Lentrax, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): Let'sGetKraken
Persolus (1): Cazero
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (4): Let'sGetKraken, , Murska, Illven
Illven (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

Just noting that Snow has no votes on her; that was my error in not striking out my first vote, so Snow double-counted me in the table.

[Lentrax]

I look over my cards, and think for a moment as I light another cigarette.

I ponder what all the commotion is about, but I just hit here, so no need to get in everyone’s business.

I look up at Athedia.

“Hit me.”

[Batcathat]

Assuming AV is indeed implying a vig claim, that does seem like an unlikely play for a wolf since it'd be pretty likely to get counter-claimed. It's certainly not much, especially since it comes with a "just kidding" excuse built in, but I suppose it's better than nothing.

Not sure where that leaves me though. No read on Caz and with so few posts, not a lot to learn from his flip. Mixed read on Kraken, with a lot more posts, at least. Some vague suspicions against Cao, who's sort of in the middle activity-wise.

How does everyone else feel about CaoimhinTheCape?

[Murska]

As far as I'm concerned, AV has claimed Vig hard enough that going 'jk' isn't enough and I will vote there if they try to backtrack without a real good explanation.