Werewolf Classic XII

[Orangeban]

That's where my disconnect is. In my eyes, there's no such thing as a "cleared villager." There's only what people claim to be, which I will always see as dubious.

Maybe I'm overdoing it on paranoia, but I just do not trust anything anyone says. Even if someone comes out and says they'e the Fool, were I the Seer, I would still not trust it until I saw conclusive evidence for myself. It does no good for the Fool to come out, because he doesn't cease to be a liability.

As far as the usefulness of the interference....I don't know. I mean, the Fool and Seer can coordinate, which will prevent them from interfering with each other, and the Fool can protect key roles from the Devil but...well, my inexperience talking again, I understand that the seers who are probably trying to avoid interference are looking around semi-randomly. Assuming the Devil and the Fool choose random targets, the probability of interference (46 divided by 46 choose 2 with repition) is something like 4% right now...

Well yes but as you said it is semi-random. They choose with some degree of thought. However, the list of suspicious people for the devil and suspicious people for the seer are slightly different so they can probably be even less random. But then you consider that the devil doesn't know the other wolves then the suspicious person lists get more similar. So therefore the chances of interference are slightly higher than you say. Maybe 10%-20% give or take.

[Murska]

Well, if you never trust anyone you're never going to get anything done, except hampering the efforts of those who do. That means you're probably more of a liability than the Fool ever could be.

[Matt K]

I'm pointing at Valiquil pretty much to make some sense of Leta's nightkill. However, Zar Peters did point at him but I don't feel that's enought to for me to vote on. Murska and Uber-Gamer have been involved with all of the major bandwagons (all of whom are villagers) but I may have missed a vote here and there.

King.com seems suspicious too but again he's only jumped on the bandwagon at the end which seems wolfish but the nights kills still don't add up.

[Castaras]

I could have sworn I posted this afternoon already. O.o

*points at Eldritch Knight*

[Orangeban]

I could have sworn I posted this afternoon already. O.o

*points at Eldritch Knight*

I point at Castaras because with her apparent bad memory she forget I did and won't revenge vote

[Duneyrr]

Well, if you never trust anyone you're never going to get anything done, except hampering the efforts of those who do. That means you're probably more of a liability than the Fool ever could be.

This.

We can't lynch people whom we have reasonable suspicion of being villager roles. There are plenty of targets out there acting suspiciously, of which you are making yourself out to be.

No vote for now, since there is still some time for arguments and development.

[cd4]

After reading the logic I think I will vote for Annon.

[Castaras]

I point at Castaras because with her apparent bad memory she forget I did and won't revenge vote

Why would I revenge vote?

[Eldritch Knight]

Castaras, if only because she was pointing at me.

[Ghanz Nmi]

I'll point Annon- his explanations remind me of explanations I used as wolf in previous games. "I'm acting a bit suspicious because I'm new" is also just as strong an excuse whether villager or wolf.

Madeyegeorge, I'm still watching you.

[The Bushranger]

Everybody

...what?

OK. Eldritch Knight.

[Annon]

Waaaaaiiit...

Aw, crap. The seer can confirm that they're the seer by scrying IP or Ramsus, can't they? That didn't occur to me, for some reason...

Ehhhh....now I don't know who to point at. I thought I was all smart for coming up with a way to get actual evidence for whether the two claimers are on the up-and-up.


So, looking at history...I'll actually point at Phase. Of all the people here (other than Ramsus, who may or may not have been a misguided Fool) he's the one who has pointed at a villager every day.

[TFT]

...I'm not touching the claim situation with a 99 1/2 foot pole, Not enough info. We can debate around in circles, but until we have actual proof for or against either one of them/something else happens, it would end up just being circles.

However, I have to say that some of the bandwagons that have been popping up around the situation have been pretty suspicious, mainly the ramsus one. However, bruntonspall attempting to reveal a potential hidden seer strikes me as more suspicious then anything else right now.

[Ghanz Nmi]

...I'm not touching the claim situation with a 99 1/2 foot pole, Not enough info. We can debate around in circles, but until we have actual proof for or against either one of them/something else happens, it would end up just being circles.

However, I have to say that some of the bandwagons that have been popping up around the situation have been pretty suspicious, mainly the ramsus one. However, burtonspall attempting to reveal a potential hidden seer strikes me as more suspicious then anything else right now.

So many people acting suspiciously! I'll probably be dead before I even get through half my list. No burtonspall, but bruntonspall is pretty suspicious. Maybe you should go for him instead?

[IXI FatTony IXI]

Murska for the randoms. (waiting for all diz shiz to blow over)

[razovor]

brutonspall

[bruntonspall]

...I'm not touching the claim situation with a 99 1/2 foot pole, Not enough info. We can debate around in circles, but until we have actual proof for or against either one of them/something else happens, it would end up just being circles.

The lack of a counter-claim should be proof. Both Fool and Seer could swap 1 cleared villager for 1 wolf, which is a very good swap for the fool, and a even-ish swap for the seer (it's annoying to loose the seer, especially early, but not more of a loss than a wolf from the wolf team).
Wolf claims are fairly rare for a reason, with between 4-1 and 6-1 against the wolves, loosing a single wolf is far worse to the wolf team than loosing a villager to the the villager team. A wolf who claims will have a counterclaim straight after, everyone lynches one, and if it was a wolf, the other is cleared, if not, the wolf dies next. It's a definite lose for the wolves, and most likely a gain for the villagers if not an even swap.

However, burtonspall attempting to reveal a potential hidden seer strikes me as more suspicious then anything else right now.

I'm not sure what you mean by a potential hidden seer. Both Fool and Seer have publicly claimed, nobody is hidden.
I'll agree though, these posts are suspicious, I mean they're full of such stuff as logic, reasoning and theory rather than vague suspicions and reasonless points like say "ok I'll vote ...".
Also the name is bruntonspall not burtonspall but I'll let you get away with that (although it stuffs up my software for counting votes)

[Ghanz Nmi]

The lack of a counter-claim should be proof. Both Fool and Seer could swap 1 cleared villager for 1 wolf, which is a very good swap for the fool, and a even-ish swap for the seer (it's annoying to loose the seer, especially early, but not more of a loss than a wolf from the wolf team).
Wolf claims are fairly rare for a reason, with between 4-1 and 6-1 against the wolves, loosing a single wolf is far worse to the wolf team than loosing a villager to the the villager team. A wolf who claims will have a counterclaim straight after, everyone lynches one, and if it was a wolf, the other is cleared, if not, the wolf dies next. It's a definite lose for the wolves, and most likely a gain for the villagers if not an even swap.


I'm not sure what you mean by a potential hidden seer. Both Fool and Seer have publicly claimed, nobody is hidden.
I'll agree though, these posts are suspicious, I mean they're full of such stuff as logic, reasoning and theory rather than vague suspicions and reasonless points like say "ok I'll vote ...".
Also the name is bruntonspall not burtonspall but I'll let you get away with that (although it stuffs up my software for counting votes)

Okay... This has made me even more suspicious of bruntonspall. There's a lot of agitation, over-explanation and general defensiveness going on here- even more than Annon at the moment. Furthermore, his logic is very anti-town.

However, I'm going to keep my point on Annon, since I have used the same flawed logic during my first games, so I will wait a day. No point letting a wolf slip past a bandwagon because we are all off chasing different targets.

[Rogue Nine]

This Burton fellow does seem the most suspicious. I've yet to see him post at all in this thread.

Oh, you mean bruntonspall. Oh yeah. Him.

My random vote 'o the day is for Duneyrr for being the person to have the 666th post in this thread.

Will probably change once I've gone back through to day 1 and looked for patterns.

[Ramsus]

I'm also gonna vote for Julian84 because voting for no lynch at this point is strategically worse than voting for me. (Probably better than voting for the Seer though.) I'm glad someone pointed out that I would happily die to take out a counter-claiming wolf and also that people pointed out that I can interfere with the Devil, I hadn't even thought of that. *shrug* I'll probably be dead by the next day just for that inconvenience but then the Seer will actually have proof that I'm the Fool and that's even better than my word.

[bruntonspall]

Okay... This has made me even more suspicious of bruntonspall. There's a lot of agitation, over-explanation and general defensiveness going on here

agitation - Because at the moment people are voting all over the place, lots of spread voting. That's normally fine, but it means that a very small bandwagon on the potential seer could well lynch him.
Over-explaining - This is a beginners game, I may well be wrong about the strategy, but I want people to understand why I think what we are doing as a village this turn is dangerous.
Defensive - Not the first time I've been called out on that in a game. I've been trying (possibly not well) to defend the logic that I think the village should follow rather than against accusations directly against me, since I am fully aware that trying to explain logically why people should vote in a different way often comes across as suspicious.

I tell you what, vote to lynch me in place of the Seer/Fool, and when I die and am proved a villager, look back at my "logic" and agree to start working together as a village.

[Griever]

I honestly don't, at this point in time, have enough time to read over all these pages of text... so placeholder point on Zar Peter because of his accuracy on the existence of squid bones.

[Annon]

The lack of a counter-claim should be proof. Both Fool and Seer could swap 1 cleared villager for 1 wolf, which is a very good swap for the fool, and a even-ish swap for the seer (it's annoying to loose the seer, especially early, but not more of a loss than a wolf from the wolf team).
Wolf claims are fairly rare for a reason, with between 4-1 and 6-1 against the wolves, loosing a single wolf is far worse to the wolf team than loosing a villager to the the villager team. A wolf who claims will have a counterclaim straight after, everyone lynches one, and if it was a wolf, the other is cleared, if not, the wolf dies next. It's a definite lose for the wolves, and most likely a gain for the villagers if not an even swap.


I'm not sure what you mean by a potential hidden seer. Both Fool and Seer have publicly claimed, nobody is hidden.
I'll agree though, these posts are suspicious, I mean they're full of such stuff as logic, reasoning and theory rather than vague suspicions and reasonless points like say "ok I'll vote ...".
Also the name is bruntonspall not burtonspall but I'll let you get away with that (although it stuffs up my software for counting votes)

There's no way, no way a wolf's life is more valuable than the seer's. This game is essentially a race to see if we can figure out who the wolves are before they kill enough of us to outnumber us--the seer is the most powerful tool we have to do that.

That said, I would be remiss if I pointed at you for using faulty logic (since essentially the exact same thing is what landed me on the chopping block), however, the sideways-passive-aggressive insults when you didn't even have the votes to tie me yet is enough to earn a finger from me, bruntonspall

[Ghanz Nmi]

agitation - Because at the moment people are voting all over the place, lots of spread voting. That's normally fine, but it means that a very small bandwagon on the potential seer could well lynch him.
Over-explaining - This is a beginners game, I may well be wrong about the strategy, but I want people to understand why I think what we are doing as a village this turn is dangerous.
Defensive - Not the first time I've been called out on that in a game. I've been trying (possibly not well) to defend the logic that I think the village should follow rather than against accusations directly against me, since I am fully aware that trying to explain logically why people should vote in a different way often comes across as suspicious.

I tell you what, vote to lynch me in place of the Seer/Fool, and when I die and am proved a villager, look back at my "logic" and agree to start working together as a village.

This game has a Seer and a Devil, so information for both sides is equal until the moment the Devil hits a Wolf. In this situation, telling a Seer to counter-claim and/or trade with a wolf is pretty much a death sentence for Town. I'm casting my point at bruntonspall.

[Gray Mage]

I don't see this thread for a day and suddenly there's like three new pages of logic posts. The most recent ones seem to indicate that bruntonspall is fishy (not that there's anything wrong with it, our british fish friend ). Maybe after reading everything I'll change.

[Helgraf]

New vibe from the Mime Gods now. Ol' Billtodamax appeared from beyond the grave, bearing their new tidings.

Abstaining for today.

Not voting only helps the wolves, Julian84.

[Horoar]

I've said Bruntonspall a long time ago. I don't trust his logic. It gennerally seems to be an attempt to get the villagers subdued. Lets get him now and wait to see if the wolves night kill the seer. Then we can sort out the seer/fool business.

[Ghanz Nmi]

I've said Bruntonspall a long time ago. I don't trust his logic. It gennerally seems to be an attempt to get the villagers subdued. Lets get him now and wait to see if the wolves night kill the seer. Then we can sort out the seer/fool business.

Baner, please please please protect Psycho.

[Aemoh]

I'm totally not paying enough attention to this game(had to check to see if I was dead or not...) so quick random point at The Bushranger.

Not even gonna try to bother with this whole claim thing.

[Philistine]

Ghanz Nmi, because what WW games really need is more usage of lovely terms like "scum-dar."