Grave Robbers from Outer Space - game thread

[Philistine]

Yes I did:

Ack! You did indeed - my apologies. There were several people who did not point at Androgial and did point at EDK, but you were not one of them.

Jontom falls off his stepladder and ends up pointing at Philistine.

I like to encourage new talent and Talic's reasoning is good.

Yeah... except that it really isn't. As I said before, at the time I pointed to EDK, there was no counter-bandwagon. It hadn't gotten started yet. So there's a legitimate argument that my vote was not "more decisive" than anyone else's; and there's certainly no justification for claiming that it was "more malicious" than any other.

And of course the whole line of speculation rests on the unspoken assumption that PirateMonk is a Creature - if he's a villager as well, it all goes down the drain. Because if PirateMonk is a villager, then a villager was going to be lynched in either case, no matter what I did.

It's really more a case of "reaching" than "reasoning." It relies on untested assumptions, and the incomplete consideration of sequence leads to a flatly wrong conclusion about significance. I'd really rather not get lynched just to prove Talic wrong.

[Talic]

Yeah... except that it really isn't. As I said before, at the time I pointed to EDK, there was no counter-bandwagon. It hadn't gotten started yet. So there's a legitimate argument that my vote was not "more decisive" than anyone else's; and there's certainly no justification for claiming that it was "more malicious" than any other.

And of course the whole line of speculation rests on the unspoken assumption that PirateMonk is a Creature - if he's a villager as well, it all goes down the drain. Because if PirateMonk is a villager, then a villager was going to be lynched in either case, no matter what I did.

It's really more a case of "reaching" than "reasoning." It relies on untested assumptions, and the incomplete consideration of sequence leads to a flatly wrong conclusion about significance. I'd really rather not get lynched just to prove Talic wrong.

The odds are somewhat likely that Pirate Monk is a villager. However, I cannot speculate on information I do not have. The information I have shows that no matter what else is true, you bandwagoned a villager, and did not bandwagon a wolf. Now, it's certainly not 100% guaranteed. But people generally are either bandwagoners, or they're not. The fact that you've been on both sides of that, conveniently in a manner which has you only bandwagoning a villager, and not a wolf, puts you in a small group.

Other people who didn't bandwagon day one, and DID on day 2?
Shishnarfne, Lex-Kat (though since she was the first vote day 2, it's hard to call her a bandwagoner), and deathslayer 7.

That's a very low number, so I can surmise that wolves are laying low. Still, I'm relatively sure at least half that number are wolves.

Which is better odds than a random point.

[Philistine]

But speculating on information that you do not have is exactly what you're doing. Worse even, since by your own admission one of your key assumptions is probably wrong.

Here's a cold, hard fact: the basis of your characterization of me as either a bandwaggoner or not a bandwaggoner is a total of two votes, lifetime. Now, set aside for a moment the fact that I've already explained why I pointed as I did on Day 1. And leave out that at the time I voted on Day 1 there was no bandwagon to jump onto - at least 4 people had 2 votes each, and Vampiric had 3; the Androgial bandwagon didn't take off until later. Even apart from those things, two is not a statistically significant sample.

So here's another non-speculative fact: your analysis is all wet. You did get one thing right, though: 0% is contained in the set of not 100%.

[LadyMeyers]

Scene 3 ends

You’re missing the point, the terror, of the scene. The way you’re screaming, you’d think you’d seen a rat… not that you were facing certain DEATH.


The director’s eyes gleamed in excitement at the prospect, and a few of the actors shifted nervously.

Meeker, come here, would you? He looked around, searching for the right prop. Here! Take this. He handed Matthew a set of chopsticks. And … this! This time a shotgun was thrust into his hands.

Um, sir... What am I supposed to do with ...

Wait a moment... I gave you the wrong thing... Give me that! The director grabs the shotgun from Matthew and, after a moment of digging in his pocket, he pulls out a brick, which he thrusts at Matthew. You shouldn't handle something like this unless you know how to use it.

He waves the shotgun around aimlessly.

Be careful, sir! That's loaded!

The director looks at him, puzzled. No, it's not. It's a six shell magazine. And I used one on my office door when I forgot the key inside. I used two on the rat I found inside. Two to give my office that skylight I've always wanted. And the last on the pigeon that flew in my brand new skylight. One, plus two, plus two, plus one. Six.

But sir, you only used one on your ceiling. I almost had a heart attack when your ceiling started to fall on my head. That makes one, plus two, plus one, plus one. Five. Not six.

Nonsense, Melanie. It's empty. See? The director pulled the trigger. BOOM!! One... plus two... ... plus one... ... He looks around sheepishly at the actors. Oo, boy. Five.

I've been shot! Uncle Festy stares in shock at the new hole in his shoulder. You... crazy ... His words drop off as he passes out.

Several members of the cast run forward to catch him as he falls, while one of them pulls out a cell to call for help.

The director clears his throat and slips the shotgun behind his back. I think we've had enough... excitement for today. I want to see you all bright and early tomorrow morning when we'll start the next scene.

Uncle Festy had a work-related accident. He was the Helpful Guy from Next Door, a Mason.

Night 3 begins now and ends in 24 hours. Please send all night actions to Cristo and LadyMeyers.

[Uncle Festy]

Nice job, guys.
… and I forgot to pass off my suspicions to the rest of my team! Dammit!
*grumbles about not being on the forums enough*

[Hyozo]

Unless I've missed something The points so far gave been as follows:

Spoiler

Show

{table]name | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3
Aemoh | Allysian | Zar Peter | TwoBitWriter
Alarra | Uncle Festy | | Selrahc
Allysian | | Emperor Demonking | TwoBitWriter
androgial | Blue Umbrella | |
Atreyu the Masked LLama | androgial | | Shadow
Banjo1985 | Atreyu the Masked LLama | | hap_hazard
Blue Umbrella | | |
Bushranger | Blue Umbrella | | Philistine
Coplantor | Vampiric | | Uncle Festy
Dallas-dakota | Shadow | Reinholdt | Shadow
Deathslayer7 | iceddragons | Emperor Demonking | Atreyu the Masked LLama
Dragoon | Fleeing Coward | Fleeing Coward | Philistine
Emperor Demonking | Deathslayer7 | Mordokai |
Fin | | |
Fleeing Coward | | |
Griever | androgial | |
hap_hazard | Uncle Festy | PirateMonk | Talic
Helgraf | Philistine | Emperor Demonking | SweetLikeLemons
Hero 1.0 | Fin | | Uncle Festy
iceddragons | Jontom Xire | Jontom Xire | Uncle Festy
Jontom Xire | Murska | Murska | Philistine
lamech | The Valiant Turtle | Mordokai |
Lex-kat | Emperor Demonking | Emperor Demonking | Banjo1985
Lord Fullbladder | Selrahc | | Alarra
LordRod | androgial | | TwoBitWriter
Moofin Bard | Griever | Wolfbane |
Mordokai | | PirateMonk | Uncle Festy
Murska | Shadowcaller | Jontom Xire | Jontom Xire
Mustiado | Shadowcaller | | Talic
Philistine | Shadow | Emperor Demonking | Uncle Festy
PirateMonk | androgial | Emperor Demonking |
Reinholdt | Dallas-dakota | PirateMonk | Uncle Festy
Rogue Monk | Banjo1985 | | TwoBitWriter
Selrahc | Atreyu the Masked LLama | | Alarra
Shadow | androgial | | Mountain_Faerie
Shadowcaller | | Jontom Xire |
Shishnarfne | Vampiric | Emperor Demonking | TwoBitWriter
smellie_hippie | androgial | Emperor Demonking | Philistine
SweetLikeLemons | androgial | | TwoBitWriter
Thes Hunter | | |
The Valiant Turtle | lamech | PirateMonk |
TwoBitWriter | Atreyu the Masked LLama | Emperor Demonking | Selrahc
Uncle Festy | androgial | Emperor Demonking | TwoBitWriter
Vampiric | Emperor Demonking | PirateMonk | Talic
Wolfbane | Atreyu the Masked LLama | Moofin Bard | Lord Fullbladder
Zaragon | androgial | | Alarra
Zar Peter | Fin | PirateMonk | Uncle Festy
Talic | (autolynch replacement) | (autolynch replacement) | Philistine
Vossik | (autolynch replacement) | (autolynch replacement) | Shadow
Mountain_Faerie | (autolynch replacement) | (autolynch replacement) | TwoBitWriter
[/table]

[Coplantor]

(hahaha, great clue reference, that was one of the best movies of my infance. Coplantor the actor looks kinda paranoid:

Hey, does anyone else feel a little creeped out by the later events? I mean, people are dying regulary here, and Im kinda scared right now.

[UncleWolf]

That was a great "death" scene.

@V: Great banner by the way.

[Uncle Festy]

((I concur with TPAM, despite being sad that it was at me.))

[Allysian]

Poor pigeon... Why must he have been killed? Also poor Festy, poor poor Festy. So many non-monsters dead... Tis a sad day for all. Wolves are winning so far...eeek .

[Talic]

But speculating on information that you do not have is exactly what you're doing. Worse even, since by your own admission one of your key assumptions is probably wrong.

Wrong. I'm speculating on information I DO have. That the information is incomplete doesn't change that. This is a game of incomplete infromation.

Here's a cold, hard fact: the basis of your characterization of me as either a bandwaggoner or not a bandwaggoner is a total of two votes, lifetime. Now, set aside for a moment the fact that I've already explained why I pointed as I did on Day 1. And leave out that at the time I voted on Day 1 there was no bandwagon to jump onto - at least 4 people had 2 votes each, and Vampiric had 3; the Androgial bandwagon didn't take off until later. Even apart from those things, two is not a statistically significant sample.

So here's another non-speculative fact: your analysis is all wet. You did get one thing right, though: 0% is contained in the set of not 100%.

Facts change.

Now my analysis is based on 3.

You didn't hit up a wolf.
You followed up by bandwagoning a villager.
Day 3? Another villager.

As the information continues to accrue. It doesn't help you.

I shall point at you until either you or I is out of this one.

I can only hope others follow that example.

[Allysian]

Whoah, Talic you are one smart person/zombie. Wow, I am definitely following your teachings. Wow.

[UncleWolf]

Wrong. I'm speculating on information I DO have. That the information is incomplete doesn't change that. This is a game of incomplete infromation.

Facts change.

Now my analysis is based on 3.

You didn't hit up a wolf.
You followed up by bandwagoning a villager.
Day 3? Another villager.

As the information continues to accrue. It doesn't help you.

I shall point at you until either you or I is out of this one.

I can only hope others follow that example.

Sure, it may not help him now, but at the start of the game, depending on who you are(or were as the case may be), you have anywhere between a 1/2 chance to a 2/3 chance that you are pointing at one of the good guys/neutral/villager. You could just as easily point at anyone else who has pointed at a villager and say that they are a monster. Following your logic, if Philistine does get lynched and he is a villager, you should be a monster then.

Unfortunately, I still have to agree with your logic, but only partially.


(and yes, facts do change. But not all of them all at once)

[Talic]

Doesn't prove I'm a wolf... Though, yes, in someone else's shoes, if Philistine is a villager, everyone needs to ask themselves this...

Based on the information available now, is there anyone who has a more questionable record?

If not, then either:

I'm a villager, going off best available information
or
I'm a wolf, who stumbled on a villager with REALLY bad luck, and am milking it for all it's worth, and making myself a potential target when I do get him.

Going 1 for 1 with villagers is a bad idea for wolves. Making myself a target to get a villager is thus, a bad idea, if I'm a wolf.

I'm not generally in the habit of making bad ideas, but if you think I'm the bluffing type, and Phil happens to be a villager... Then go for it.

But if I'm a villager also... Now the same suspicion would fall on you.

[Lex-Kat]

WIIIIIIIIIII!!!! And round and round the logic goes.

[Reinholdt]

((I'm suspicious of Lex-kat. I mean look at her avatar! There's three of her! If that's not suspicious, I don't know what is.

Besides Murska.))

[Deathslayer7]

I skipped over those long posts. Didnt feel like reading them. Does that make me suspicious?

[Talic]

There is no innocence. Only degrees of guilt!

(yes, I'm playing Dawn of War)

[UncleWolf]

Good game.
@DS7: Well, you should likely read them anyways.

[LadyMeyers]

Night 3 ends

Mountain_Faerie tottles around the stage, trying to get a feel for this stuffy droid costume. It feels tight and, if she were an expert on these things, it had way too many wires for a simple costume.

She hears a noise behind her and tries to turn to investigate. Stupid costume! Can’t see a darn thing in this get-up.

Another noise. This time she turns all the way around and spots Alarra behind her, lipstick in hand, trying for nonchalance.

Were you just using me as a mirror?! Mountain_Faerie glares at her.

Of course not! She smiles brightly. Now would you mind turning around again? I have a date tonight and I’m already running late. She leans closer to the reflective surface of the costume, reaching out to polish out a smudge that obscured her view.

SNAP! A wire from one of the spotlights swung down toward the stage. It impacted the metal costume, sparks flying when the metal met electricity.

Alarra was killed by the Creatures; she was an Extra.
Mountain_Faerie was killed by a Special Effects card; she was the Nervous Girl.

Scene 4 starts

The director paced excitedly through his crowd of actors.

We have a special scene, dear to my heart, to film today. You‘re in … the Funhouse! Isn’t that wonderful?! This scene is going to take the movie to new heights!

The actors looked at each other nervously.

The director took no notice and blithely continued. You! He pointed gleefully at Banjo1985. You are a walking infomercial.

He spots Mustiado and grabs him. You! You are a Blue Man! It’s perfect!

And you! The director points at Talic. You have a five-second attention span.

Oo! I just had a spark of inspiration! The director gazed around the crowd and settled on Lex-Kat. You! You think you’re invisible.

Um, sir. I hate to interrupt, but your new ... stuntman has arrived. Matthew shuffled his feet.

Oh, perfect timing. We’ll definitely need him for this.

The following people must vote during this day phase or be auto-lynched:
Moofin Bard
Shadowcaller

[androgial]

doot doot doot doot do do doot doot doot doot

[Talic]

I have a five second attention span, got it.

Oh, what's that? It looks like faulty wiring in the floorboard. What do you say, Deathslayer7?

My lines, my lines. I've gotta memorize my lines... They've got me in a...

Oh look, a funhouse! I love funhouses! I haven't been in forever, not since the last time I saw my dad, before the crash.

He had a mustang, not the horse kind, the car kind. It got wrecked, right down to the cupholders.

Speaking of that, I'm thirsty. Who's got a coke? Come on, Philistine, stop holding out on me!

[Lex-Kat]

Marian begins to strip off her clothing. Once done, she prances around the set. YAY!!! I'm free!! You can't see me, because I'm invisible!!!

Anyone who gets a close look will see that she's wearing a nude colored bodysuit.

She pokes Banjo in the side. BOO!!!

[Deathslayer7]

Please cast blindness on me.

(Sorry couldn't help it )

[Hyozo]

I doubt Talic's logic. I think I'll point at Zaragon under a (somewhat weak I'll admit) suspicion involving the fact he was the only person to point at Androginal after he revealed himself (I would expect at least one wolf to join the bandwagon after that) to still be alive.

[Philistine]

"A... A funhouse?" Phil goggles at the suggestion. "People are falling over dead right and left, so we should go into a maze of dark, narrow hallways where there will be things jumping out at us and people screaming and it'll be hard to see or hear anything for sure so that we can be picked off one by one?" He gulps nervously. "My agent better be right about this being my big break."

He frantically waves down a passer-by. "Hey, have you noticed that one guy over there?" he whispers, pointing to Talic. "I think there's something wrong with that guy."

((Oh, come ON. How stupid would I have to be to bandwagon another villager immediately after beig accused of being a wolf? What you have is going on is called an idee fixe - you've decided that I'm a wolf, and so now in your eyes anything I do will seem to "confirm" your suspicions. (It's really true that you find the things you look for, whether they're there or not.) The problem is that your analysis is deeply and profoundly flawed, but you continue to grasp at straws to try to justify your "logical" decision.

You may or may not be a wolf, though the amount of effort you're directing into trying to lynch a villager is certainly odd if you're not. But even if you're a villager, I think that getting you and the fevered flights of fancy you consider "sound analysis" out of the picture can only be to the benefit of the rest of us. Hey, it's better than a random point.))

[Lex-Kat]

The thing of it is, actually, you could both be wolves, and just drawing this drama out so that people wonder about the innocence of you both.

[Deathslayer7]

I look around and see Talic talking to me.

In response to his question. No the floor looks all right to me.

Looking over Talic's shoulder, I see Shadow Caller just standing there, staring at the floor. Maybe somehting was wrong with it.

@ Talic: also. It is easy to point fingers at someone, espcially since you have only been here a day, and weren't able to participate on either bandwagon. By basing you logic on a persons points, you have to understand in each case why that person pointed at them. Without understanding why a person pointed at someone, any and all conclusions you draw from who they pointed at are inherently flawed. Just thought i should put that out, since you do think I am a wolf. Yes, I took Wolfbane's advice and read the posts.

[Talic]

((Listed you as a suspect. As I pretty much started the last bandwagon against you in our last game, I want to be absolutely 100% certain before pointin' at ya this one, Deathslayer.

As for the others? I've read every post in the thread. I may have only been here a day, but I've read every public reasoning.

And Phil? That's a remarkably good defense. However, I can't discount the possibility of a bluff, and you have all the patterns of a wolf. Staying in the back, laying low, vehement "I'm not a wolf" defense when the possibility is suggested. In fact, I'd likely have moved onto someone else today, a different person with a bad record, had you not been so aggressive in your insisting that you're not.

I haven't said I am a wolf. I haven't said I'm not. Because me sayin' it don't make one or the other true. And it does nothing except draw attention. Like you did. So, you've got your attention. Or rather, you've got mine. I have a feeling I'll be a very predictable voter for the next several days. ))

[Reinholdt]

((I think I'll listen to my own advice from other threads and go with Murska. Always.))

"If you build it, they will come."