Careless Village WW

[Count Dingdong]

so....

anyone on the east coast, how's the weather.

pretty good, actually. here at least.

I'll rejoin as number 26.

Noted.

[Ramsus]

My usual defenses include having ensured we lynched the Devil? Funny, you'd think I'd recall that.

[Penguinator]

My usual defenses include having ensured we lynched the Devil? Funny, you'd think I'd recall that.

As we've pointed out multiple times, you really didn't do anything for that lynch. Go back and read through. You can't be that sick. I don't think anyone switched from Forum Explorer to anyone else that day, at least from my reading a couple hours ago. Again, multiple votes from people who were quite certain they were going to lynch FE, then your post, with some, "no, let's kill FE" then some votes for you, then the devil's lynched. I don't see you "saving the day."

[Ramsus]

So that just means everyone else secretly drew the same conclusion I did and didn't say it out loud for no good reason or that they were willing the lynch a seer or willing to just do what everyone else did not matter who was being lynched. Explain to me how that makes me a wolf. Then explain why, as a wolf, I would even have said anything at all there.

Edit: Especially since, as you said, some people had voted for me at that point and would very obviously have used that as an excuse to lynch me the next day if I'd been wrong.

Edit 2: Your arguments for why we should lynch me are, I think the most telling thing about why we shouldn't. You're dismissing my logic as "Ramsus' usual defenses" which is something I know that you know I find annoying when you could attack the individual points themselves. Which leads me to believe you aren't behaving as you usually do as town. Then you make an even better point for me about the whole Devil situation in an attempt to discredit one of my points for why it makes little sense to view me as a wolf.

Do we have any reason right now to believe you're town? You don't seem to be acting like you do as town.

Edit 3: If you're a wolf and you're pushing my wagon this hard, it leads me to believe you think I'm the Baner and that lynching me is the only way you're going to kill me. And I also know you know how well I've done in the past as a Baner.

Edit 4: This also explains why you seem to be pushing for the Baner to claim. Which is highly inadvisable in this situation. And you'd know that too.

Edit 5: As Penguinator is not an original surviving role and hasn't been scried to my knowledge, we have no reason at all to believe he's town. As I've pointed out he's behaving anti-town just for trying to get the Baner to claim and is behaving in ways I'm pretty certain he doesn't as town (though I guess &we might want to weigh in there as of course I could have a bias).

Still, pretty sure he's a wolf now adding up all the things. I'm not going to urge anyone to vote for him as he's not an original wolf and thus not who we need to die right now. Instead since there's already votes on Grue Bait and Zar (possibly the Seer and not the Fool) is voting for him, I'd say do that. It's not perfect but, it's better than lynching me.

Planswalker, I have done something constructive and found another target based on logic and patterns. You suggested I do so if I wanted you to change your vote. Are you now going to or will you go back on your word? (Not that I'm saying you flat out promised or anything, still near enough that my opinion of you (that you don't care about I'm sure) would be lessened for flat out ignoring your own statements without a particularly good reason.)

Edit X (seriously, this is a lot of edits): Ok yeah, technically the logic, I found a wolf, now lynch someone else doesn't really scan but, in the principle of the thing, you still should be switching your vote off of me. If for no other reason than you gave me a lot of carp while I was sick and I put in clearly way more effort into this than you did and you aren't sick.

In sum, I'm sick, vote for that guy because my reasons are better than yours for voting for me and that's what you asked for.

[usourselves&we]

alright so it is like the old hours of the night so don't be looking for any cohesion
or whatever the fleck the right word that is being looked for
heh, you already lost what you were going to say.

right well, didn't really read all the long windy things and people being
is loud the right word
can written words even be loud
Man, you are just lost. So lost that i'm going to have to get lost to help you into bed.
well whatever it was loud even if it is not the right word
anyways

You were saying? Anyways what? Speak up crazy
maybe a claim of whatever sort will help you at this point
least it would not do anything that is not already happening right now

While he rambles guess I could actually comment.
Again, haven't read all the bits and bobs of this day, but I wouldn't really be shocked to find that wolves were a good number of the wagoners here, you being scried and all. In truth I was thinking some one would be slightly trying to help you, like the Nightfowl. Who also prompted Mage.
so what are you saying
At the moment it's "You're too loud in my ears for me to think." So how about to back off.
you think i'm going to just because you use contractions and punctuation
I also capitalize words you little know nothing.
oh you just had to go there
Yeah, gone came back and got you a souvenir, but I don't think you can handle it.
ok, that is it! both of you out and off to bed now, i need to try to make a coherent end to this mess of a post. now, i don't care to delete any of this or even read it over for fear they may work their way back in here. But anyways points of interest:
. . .
someone claim something, mostly the silent people, everyone has to give there take of the game so far and . . .
blast who am i kidding no one is reading this annoyance of a post, even more so this part, well maybe some but you know you all are crazy for actually reading all of this, cause frick, nothing sensible will be made of this post.

oh and for people that may or may not be wondering it is first come first serve for the colors, i just wanted to mock the guy a bit don't know i would become the voice of reason and end up being a large part of the post. so . . . sorry for that?

[TigerFang]

Grue Bait because I am out of ideas and I'm too busy for any serious analysis right now.

[TBFProgrammer]

Edit: Also, TBF I don't see how I have two wins?

Personal win conditions are a thing, and yeah, basically I was saying that your logic about wanting to stay alive to grab another win gives the wrong impression to most of us win-less peons.

It's just that I'm pretty sick of getting lynched/killed because people ignore everything I say and go "those aren't reasons, those are......smeasons! lalalala not listening, have a couple insults and mocking and we're gonna lynch you anyway and even if we're wrong we will never admit we made the wrong choice or that our behavior was inappropriate.", instead of actually just countering my logic like happens for anyone else.

You do the same exact thing every time you come up for lynch, which is protest that you don't want to die, declare those voting against you to have no logic (but don't address anything they bring up) and whine about how no one counters your logic.

This is not an especially good defense. In fact, if anyone else used it I'd be outright calling them wolves and stating things like "methinks thou doth protest too much." Interestingly, you do this as well.

With you it is a null read (hence why people ignore it).

Players who don't know you see a wolfish tactic employed. Players who do see a null read when they already had at least some small reason to lynch you (which is why the wagon started rolling). There is no reason to stop the wagon and divert it to someone else.

That is the key thing you are missing in your defenses. You aren't just defending yourself, you have to put up a better option, since we are going to lynch someone. This differs from most other life experiences, where delay or no choice can be useful options. In a wolf game, that would just hand the game to the wolves.


EDIT:

Planswalker, I have done something constructive and found another target based on logic and patterns. You suggested I do so if I wanted you to change your vote. Are you now going to or will you go back on your word?

A better target, Ramsus. Also, you kind of needed to lead the day off with that, instead of waiting to be told what to do to avoid lynch (which is my reason for wanting to lynch you).

It is worth noting that these suggestions are for future games. My vote is not moving in this one, and I don't suggest others do so either.

[Matthias2207]

Ramsus has a chance of 0.6180339887 of being a wolf, according to my completely reliable and trustworthy wolf detecting Wheel of Wolf Detecting. The Perfect Chance, to be exact.

[Count Dingdong]

Current Votes:
Ramsus - 5
Grue Bait - 3

8 (?) need to vote, ~18 hours left.
C'nor must vote to avoid autolynch.

Mayor Votes:
(none so far)

when any Mayor votes made, Candidates send in titles in QTs!

----------------------

Note: Links to narration posts added to OP along with descriptions of what happened that day. Primarily for my help but figured some of you might want to know anyway.

[Ramsus]

&we... what? I'm "too loud" for you to not vote for me? I should shut up and..... let you keep your vote on me? Wtf kind of excuse is that supposed to be?

Matthias, gee thanks for not even pretending you are blindly jumping on bandwagons.

Edit: @TBF: That's bull****. I have to discover things at the start of the day phase or they don't count now? And Grue is a better target than me. For one thing, has he even said a single thing this day? Has he chimed in once after half a dozen people have asked him to? Nope. I've done my job. I've established reasons why I'm a bad person to lynch. That's more than you've done. Don't give me this nonsense about when figuring out a piece of information counts.

Edit 2: Actually, after fully reading your post, combined with stuff like Matthias' not even paying attention point, &we's bull**** nonsense response, planswalker's ridiculous aggressiveness, Penguinator intentionally doing stuff he knows makes me upset, and about a hundred or so other things like this, I think it's time I stopped putting in the effort to play games here. You guys have been treating me like dirt for at least half a year now and it hasn't let up.

[TBFProgrammer]

Edit: @TBF: That's bull****. I have to discover things at the start of the day phase or they don't count now?

Nope, you have to produce things prior to being explicitly asked for them. If you hadn't gone on a tirade prior to hunting, things would be different.

As for how you've "been treated," this is an adversarial game of suspicion and backstabbing. How exactly did you expect people to act?

You are complaining about being bumped into in an (American) football game, to speak metaphorically.

[planswalker]

Okay, Ramsus, finally saw that you continued to massively edit the post that when I went to bed was a third this length. Since I was called out specifically, I will do my best to answer you piece by piece so you can clearly see that I am not putting words in your mouth or ignoring your point. Please extend me the same courtesy in turn. Spoilered for length.

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So that just means everyone else secretly drew the same conclusion I did and didn't say it out loud for no good reason

Let's examine that day in detail, shall we?

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Randomala point at Forum explorer for no reason

i tottaly didnt change my post.

super dark edited in a vote for FE AFTER many other posts. This is really an example of him trolling voting history, as he edited this post with a FE vote after many posts discussing this, giving an illusion of him being the first to vote for him. Count Dingdong's vote tallies don't account for his vote because he edited it in long after the fact.

I'd like to know why people protected Forum Explorer, especially since he was up against the masons.

TBF asked what the logic of defending TBF was, since he opposed someone who happened to be a mason.

Agreed. Forum Explorer still has my suspicions.

I agreed with TBF's reasons and re-asserted that I still had my suspicions from day 1.

That's a good point, Forum Explorer

Devmaar thought we had a good point.

we reached lynch status before you posted day 2.

Sure, Forum Explorer it is. Remember, vote Ramsus for mayor. The opposing side is not giving you cookies no matter what they say.

You were #5 to jump on the bandwagon.

So why are we voting on ForumExplorer Again?

If you want to keep the discussion going maybe you should accuse someone else, not FE.

Gunnar questioned why we want to lynch FE. He also called out Super Dark for random voting.

whoa whoa whoa! Nobody including me knew I was up against a mason. And if I'm understanding the mason rules correctly only one other mason knew planswalker was a mason. In the end I voted for planswalker because I didn't want to get lynched myself and he had the second most votes.

TBFProgrammer for never explaining the weird logic of yesterday even when I asked politely.

FE explained his vote from yesterday and asked people to explain why they voted for him today.
he voted for one of the people that voted against him, since there wasn't much else he could do.

And that doesn't help explain why it is that you thought not getting the start of voting patterns yesterday was a good idea. You actions to me smell of someone who doesn't want an informed town.

Since TBF argued against lynching the mason yesterday, I think it's safe to say he wasn't acting wolf-like.

I'll grant that the evidence against you isn't absolutely condemning, but can you provide us a better target?

I was the first to explain my reasoning, admitted it wasn't solid logic, and challenged him to find a better target. Emphasis on better.

The moment people knew you were a Mason, no one voted for you to be linched. If you're talking about before that, what does it matter that TBF argued against it? It was a random guess!

Second: Why, if he doesn't have a better target, does he have to die? That just seems like a weird rule. I myself don't have any clear target, so do I have to die?

Gunnar tried to muddy the waters.

There is evidence that doesn't smell right to me, and SOMEONE is going to die today, whether we vote someone or leave it in the hands of a single person.

i'll grant that I'm not 100% sure he's a wolf, but he's more suspicious than anyone else.

I defend my reasoning, which boils down to "someone gonna get lynched. You're the most suspicious to me unless someone else gets pointed out."

Doesn't sound right, but hey, you're a Mason, so everything will turn out right, I hope. I'll trust you for this one:

Changing my votes:

Ramsus for mayor.
and I'm sorry, Forum Explorer but maybe this will stir up some more info.

by the way, maybe a bit of a dumb question, but: do we get to know the roles of the people we lynch?

Gunnar changes his vote to FE. That brings the total up to 5 people to lynch FE, no other competing bandwagon, and you still haven't explained your logic for voting for FE as of this time.

some back-and-forth chatter of little note happens, then:

Of course we're not giving out cookies. Everyone knows pixies make the best cake.

Vote for me, and I will give you a nice strawberry and chocolate cake, with vanilla frosting.

Oh, and Ramsus is evil. Don't vote for Ramsus. Vote Lex-Kat for mayor.

Lex-kat votes for you because she also wants to be mayor.

Forum Explorer, yes. Afraid I haven't much to say, yet.

yet another vote for FE and I haven't seen where you explain the reason to vote for FE.

Right I don't think I have time to convince you all otherwise so....


I am the Seer and I've done a piss-poor job of it.

After 6 (maybe 7, depending on if Super Dark edited in his vote by this point) votes and no other bandwagons presenting itself, he claims seer.

after he's already well over the lynch threshold with very little time left.

and any wolf could claim that.

do you have any claims we could test to help us verify this?

I ask if he has any scries we can test for this. I'm asking him to supply me with someone to switch my vote to.

Afraid not. The only scan I've done was Ramsus and it was interfered/failed for whatever reason.


So yeah piss-poor job, particularly since I've apparently missed the Night 0 scan.

he claims to have scried you and only you and have gotten interference...

which, since he turned out to be the devil and knew he was the devil, I see four possibilities for why he claimed to have scried you and got interference:

1. He told the truth, and your scry was interfered with. Most likely because the REAl seer also scried you. I guess people have been curious to know your alignment if this was true
2. He lied, he did scry you, and he got a result. It was wolf and he decided to say "interference" because he didn't want to point at a fellow wolf and give us a lynch target for day 3
3. He lied, and scried you as town. Since this isn't a useful result for a seer candidate, he didn't feel like giving the town a free scry off of him, so he claimed interference instead
4. He lied, and scried someone else instead. It wasn't a role that would help save his hide, so he decided to throw your name out as interference instead of giving town a free scry

In hindsight, I think #1 or #4 most likely. If he'd scried you as a wolf, he'd have likely thrown you under the bus to save his hide. If he'd scried you as a villager, I think he'd have likely claimed you were a wolf to get us to lynch a non-wolf that day and give him another night of scries.

still, I think in hindsight that it's most likely that he really was telling us the truth. He probably hoped the ring of truth about his scry result would give us pause.

that's... awfully convenient for a wolf to say.

of course, a true see wouldn't try to lie to save their own skin.

Like I said, a 50/50 chance of wolfhood is my bet.

I question how convenient that all is, and re-assert a 50/50 chance of FE being a wolf.

Wow a Seer claim with no scries. Yeah. Not wolfish at all. Cherry on top is the interference claim on someone believable for interference to happen on. I'm pretty sure I've done that exact move before as a wolf.

For me that's like 70/30 wolf.

I assume that this here is where you defend that FE is a wolf?
I'll grant that this is a pretty good argument.
Given late (already 6/7 votes for him to be lynched, no other opposing candidates of real note)
there were 13 hours left when you gave this argument.
Don't let me sell you short: you did give the most solid argument for why we should lynch a seer claim. It just happened to be given after he was already basically doomed and there were no other candidates and very little time to change things. I'd hardly call that a rock-solid towntell. After all, unless there was an unseen and unheard throng of people that would have rushed at the last minute to vote for someone else with no clear second candidate already present, his fate was sealed.

It actually sounds like a probable story, for the most part. A good amount of people would target Ramsus rather soon with seer powers. It's more likely that a new-ish player who is a wolf backed into a corner would claim seer with scries then claim fool when those are wrong.

But it's not like we have information Super Dark for the hell of it and still voting Lex-kat for new fake mayor vote, that might possibly become a real thing.

Us chooses to believe FE in spite of all arguments to the contrary.

I'll believe the explorer for the moment, too. And Lex Kat seems to think that Ramsus is evil, I wonder why.

I'm wondering what's this mayor thing is all are talking about lately... maybe I should read the old newspapers.

Zar Peter votes for you because... um...
you opposed Lex in the mayoral running that day?
I don't really know.
Still, this makes the second person to not vote for FE after his seer claim. Both of which are after you made your argument for lynching FE. Still not seeing where your argument changed the outcome in town's favor.

Wow, yeah, I don't want to be a lynch candidate because my opposition in this election (that I started) declared me evil. If she was a seer or a proxy that would have been an outright claim. As is, it's just misleading.

You oppose getting lynched just because Lex is running against you.
I've gotta admit you're consistent in defending yourself by criticizing the reasoning of your opposition. Not sure what that means, but you're consistent.

I don't know which side I'll be on yet but that cake sounds tasty. Lex-kat for mayor.

It would be nifty if there was initially no mayor role, enough people vote for one and Count DingDong just runs with it

Tom the Mime doesn't vote for anyone and gives a prophecy that Count Dingdong ends up fulfilling.

Hmm... I think that Superdark33 looks a tad suspicious. But I like the idea of the cake!

A vote for super dark at the last minute.

SuperDark33, because I dislike lynching a claimed Seer.

bladescape effectively turns Super Dark into a possible last-minute bandwagon.

Ramsus, for trying to get us to kill a Seer-claimant.

And Lex-Kat would be a good mayor.

C'nor opposes lynching a seer claim. Instead of following the super dark bandwagon, she votes for you. Again, I don't see the logic of this claim. I guess it boils down to "you didn't claim seer and opposed Lex in the mayor election". The election that doesn't do anything yet.
Super Dark, C'nor and I have a discussion on the merits of voting to lynch and untestable seer claim.

I'll vote SuperDark

Grue Bait jumps on the super dark bandwagon with no stated reasons.
1 hour and 22 minutes later, Count Dingdong closes voting and posts results.

Unless my count is off, FE was lynched by one vote over Super Dark.

every vote for FE happened before he even claimed seer, much less you gave your 1 post opposing it. While I'll grant that just one person out for FE changing their vote would have swung things to either Super Dark or executioner vote, you were not the only one to argue for lynching FE, you were not the most vocal, and you were very mysteriously silent once a credible bandwagon on someone else started picking up momentum at the last moment. Admittedly, you had less than a 12 hour window of opportunity to do so and thus it's just as likely you weren't on for that span as anything else.
The most you can really claim is that your argument was an example of "for want of a nail"; that is, if your small contribution hadn't been there, possibly someone else would have voted Super Dark/changed off of FE and changed the voting. The problem with this claim is that we have no evidence to say it did anything. The most likely conclusion is that your argument, despite being the most logical single post for FE's lynching, did nothing. You gave it with very little time left in the voting and no real likely-looking candidates at the time you gave it. If anything, a decently strong case could be made that your and my arguments for FE's lynching after his last-minute seer claim spawned the wave of other votes that nearly caused the FE bandwagon to be de-railed.

in summary, you did contribute to FE getting lynched. Your biggest contribution wasn't your arguments but your vote.

or that they were willing the lynch a seer or willing to just do what everyone else did not matter who was being lynched.

as plausible as this sounds, looking at all the voting from that day, the story doesn't really hold up. Everyone who voted for him did so before he gave a seer claim with less than a day left. It's very likely that most of them didn't log in and read through the backlog in time to do anything one way or the other.

Explain to me how that makes me a wolf. Then explain why, as a wolf, I would even have said anything at all there.

Because my basis for accusing you isn't founded on any one single thing. It's the overall trend of your voting since day 2. Mostly, day 3 onward. However, not even your day 2 behavior is out of line for a cunning wolf who thought there was a chance of either looking very town or lynching the seer. I'll reiterate again that your gem of an argument happened late and after all the FE votes were already in.

it's not an ironclad defense for you being town. If I was a wolf, I likely would have done something just like that in your position. Especially since I didn't know I was really going to be voting for my own devil.

Edit: Especially since, as you said, some people had voted for me at that point and would very obviously have used that as an excuse to lynch me the next day if I'd been wrong.

no, odds are we'd lynch super dark instead...

which we did end up doing soon after.

Edit 2: Your arguments for why we should lynch me are, I think the most telling thing about why we shouldn't. You're dismissing my logic as "Ramsus' usual defenses" which is something I know that you know I find annoying when you could attack the individual points themselves. Which leads me to believe you aren't behaving as you usually do as town. Then you make an even better point for me about the whole Devil situation in an attempt to discredit one of my points for why it makes little sense to view me as a wolf.

Do we have any reason right now to believe you're town? You don't seem to be acting like you do as town.

the issue at stake here isn't "do we have reason to think you're town?". The issue is at stake is "who seems most likely to be a wolf?"

Edit 3: If you're a wolf and you're pushing my wagon this hard, it leads me to believe you think I'm the Baner and that lynching me is the only way you're going to kill me. And I also know you know how well I've done in the past as a Baner.

IF he's a wolf. Your argument here hinges on this premise: you assume he is a wolf and can explain his actions in those terms.

this creates a bias in your logical reasoning, as you assume he is a wolf and then see if you can line up the evidence to match this conclusion.

A less biased premise is "I do not know if he is a wolf or not. Are his actions more like that of a wolf or a non-wolf?"

Since I myself am neither wolf nor town yet and find myself agreeing with him, I challenge your premise for your argument. I think you started with a faulty premise by assuming he was a wolf and doing your best to show the evidence that supports that.

Edit 4: This also explains why you seem to be pushing for the Baner to claim. Which is highly inadvisable in this situation. And you'd know that too.

I agree with you that calling for the baner to reveal himself isn't generally a wise idea. However, if the baner's about to be lynched with no other confirmed power roles on the table, it's reasonable to ask the person who's about to get lynched to claim a role if they have one so they can save themselves. Not really conclusively town or wolf, IMO.

Edit 5: As Penguinator is not an original surviving role and hasn't been scried to my knowledge, we have no reason at all to believe he's town. As I've pointed out he's behaving anti-town just for trying to get the Baner to claim and is behaving in ways I'm pretty certain he doesn't as town (though I guess &we might want to weigh in there as of course I could have a bias).

can't claim to know his usual activity, as I'm still quite new to WW games. The argument has been made on earlier days that we know there are two original wolves left. We do not know if there are any new wolves or not. Odds are, there are wolves in the newcomers, but we don't know how many of what kind if at all. It makes more sense to focus on the two known quantities before chasing the unknown but probably present quantities.

Especially since the pool of possible candidates for the known quantities is much smaller than the pool for the unkown number of candidates.

Still, pretty sure he's a wolf now adding up all the things. I'm not going to urge anyone to vote for him as he's not an original wolf and thus not who we need to die right now. Instead since there's already votes on Grue Bait and Zar (possibly the Seer and not the Fool) is voting for him, I'd say do that. It's not perfect but, it's better than lynching me.

... wait, after spending several edits to point at Penguinator, you suddenly switch who you urge us to lynch by saying target Grue Bait instead because a possible untested seer claims he is wolf?

I'll grant that the seer claim pointing at him is a good reason to vote for him, but is it a better reason than to vote for you?

You also have a seer claimant who pointed at you. One who's possibly the seer and not the fool. In fact, the seer claimant who pointed at you has already given us one correct scry.

Since Kalnray was a newcomer claiming seer, we have no reason to assume one seer claim being true means another has to be false, since, for all we know, they both are. Now, from a sheer probabilistic standpoint, let's examine the odds of her claim being true. I'll put it in a quote box labeled with her name so as to keep things clear.

to ensure there is a common understanding, I will use the model that probability 1 represents a guaranteed positive and probability 0 represents a guaranteed negative. I will also assume that she wasn't completely lying and at least thinks she is a seer, as giving us a testable claim without actually being able to scry at all is very anti-town. Since we know she was not a wolf (night-killed), that just doesn't square.

I also will assume that the disguiser role does not have a bias towards targeting any one player, as the only argument for it having a bias is both unquantied and coming from a source with self-interest in the base premise that you either are or are not a wolf. I am not qualified to make an estimate of that due to my inexperience and bias the other direction. If you seriously think that you are more likely to get disguised than your average bear, please give me a probability of you getting disguised as a wolf and I'll re-work the relevant odds to include that.

I will stick to the best of my ability to known probabilities and to avoid guessing at any unknowns without clear reason. In order to be able to analyze the fool, I will assume probability 0.25 for his accuracy while scrying, as I'm only in 1 other WW game and thus it is the only number I have to work with. If someone can supply me a more likely median probability, I'll re-work my calculations with that number.

If you or anyone else finds fault with my above premises or my below methodology, please calmly explain the error and I will re-evaluate my calculations.

We have no reason to believe she is anything less than equally likely for her to be a seer or fool. Thus, the probability of her being seer is .5 and fool is .5 before examining her tested claim.

She has given the following claims before she was nk'd:

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Night (4): Ramsus = Wolf
Night (5): usourselves&we = Villagers (I found the plural amusing)
Night (6): Grey Mage = Wolf
Night (7): Matthias2207 = No Scry

Basis of calculations of her scry on Grey Mage on Night 6:

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IF she is a seer, then her claim that Grey Mage was a wolf being proven means that either A) Her scry was correct
or
B) The disguiser unknowingly disguised a wolf as a wolf on the night he was scried. He could also have disguised him as town. Since disguising a wolf as wolf (if such happened) indicates no knowledge of the role, I will assume that the hypothetical disguise is randomly picked on a random player. If someone has an algorithm or other basis for determining the odds more sharply than that, I'd love to hear it. I will assume .5 probability of disguising either way.

On night 6, there were 13 living people who were not clueless newcomer. This makes the probability of Grey Mage getting disguised that night 0.0769 (1/13). The probability of him not getting disguised is thus 0.9231 (12/13). Either way, she was seer, she scried either the role or the disguise correctly, which a seer has probability 1 of doing.

We happen to know the probability of Grey Mage being a wolf is 1, since it was revealed upon his death.

IF she was a fool with a probability of correct scry of 0.25, then she had the same odds of hitting a disguise and the same odds of the disguise being town.

if she was a seer, the probability of her scrying a Grey Mage as a wolf on night 6 is: 1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*[0.9231(no disguise)+0.0769(disguise)*0.5(wolf disguise)]=0.9615

The probability of her being a fool with a correct scry on a wolf on night 6 is: 0.25*1*[0.9231+0.0769*0.5]=0.2403

if she's an equal chance of being assigned to be either role, the evidence heavily favors her being a seer since she successfully scried a wolf as a wolf on night 6. 4:1 in her favor. Before there's a significant chance of her being a fool with this result, the fool role would need to have at least a 50% chance of being correct. That would make the odds 3:1 of her being seer. It climbs up very steeply from there as the probability goes up to quickly surpassing 2:1 and approaching 1:1 as the probability of a fool's correct scry approaches 1. At less than 50%, the odds don't even increase from 4:1 to 3:1. I can more rigorously explain this point if requested.

This gives us the probability of her being a seer as 0.8 overall. 4 out of 5 times a seer/fool hypothetically scries a wolf as a wolf on night 6 and is proven right, it will be because that scrier is a seer.

Your claim as a villager disguised as a wolf and scried by the Kalnray as a wolf is thus:

Spoiler

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probability of seer: 0.8
probability of fool: 0.2
there were 15 people that night. Probability of disguiser disguising you: 0.0666 (1/15)
probability of the disguiser not disguising you: 0.9333(14/15)
Probability that the disguise was wolf: 0.5
On day 9, 2/6 remaining original players are wolves. Probability you were randomly assigned wolf role among pool of original roles remaining: 0.3333
Probability you were assigned town role among pool of original roles remaining: 0.6667

Odds of you being disguised as a wolf:
0.0666(you were disguised for the scry on night 4)*0.5(the disguise was as a wolf)=0.0333

the probability of her scrying a you as a wolf on night 4 if you really are a wolf:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*0.8(her probability of being a seer)*[0.9333(no disguise)+0.0333(disguised as wolf)]+0.25(fool probability of correct scry)*0.2(her probability of being a fool)*[0.9333(no disguise)+0.0333(disguised as wolf)]=0.8216

the probability of her scrying you as a wolf on night 4 if you really are not a wolf:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*0.8(her probability of being a seer)*0.0333(disguised as wolf)+0.25(fool probability of correct scry)*0.2(her probability of being a fool)*0.0333(disguised as wolf)=0.0283

it is very unlikely in the extreme for us to find you being otherwise from the tested seer's results.

the probability that you are a villager, but were disguised as a wolf:
0.6667(you are villager)*0.0333(you were disguised as a wolf)=0.0222

you're telling people that the incredibly long shot of you being town but disguised as a wolf happened. You also tried to encourage the idea that a proven seer claim must have been by a fool, which is less of a long shot but not still good odds.

From where I'm standing, this is a very unlikely story that I would do better to gamble against than to gamble for. Without something concrete to back up your claim, it just plain isn't likely to be a smart bet to trust you at your word to be town.

Planswalker, I have done something constructive and found another target based on logic and patterns.[/quote]

Yes, you did something constructive based on logic and patterns... you pointed out the wolfishness of Penguinator, who is likely to get probed when we finally ferret out the last original wolf.

but the target you found to replace yourself on the chopping block was not Penguinator. the target you found was Zar Peter's untested seer claim that he also voted for the next day. That is another target yes, and you could accurately say that some logic and Zar Peter's voting patterns went into choosing it, but I don't see how this makes him a better target than you when an already tested seer claim has already painted you as a target.

You probably did ferret out the second best target to lynch today, but you haven't shown to me how this target is a better choice than you are.

You suggested I do so if I wanted you to change your vote.

yes, if you want me to change my vote, you'll need to supply me a target that I see as more likely to be a wolf than you are.

Are you now going to or will you go back on your word?

did you intend to word it so that I'm a liar and a promise-breaker if I don't side with you? Because that's how it's coming off to me. Which is a dirty tactic and a low blow.

however, since the target you supplied is not one that I see as more likely to be a wolf than you are, I am not going back on my word at all by saying that my vote stays.

(Not that I'm saying you flat out promised or anything, still near enough that my opinion of you (that you don't care about I'm sure) would be lessened for flat out ignoring your own statements without a particularly good reason.)

does me thinking your untested seer's candidate not being more weighty than a tested seer's candidate qualify? If not, then I hope you will eventually forgive me for becoming an "oathbreaker".

Edit X (seriously, this is a lot of edits): Ok yeah, technically the logic, I found a wolf, now lynch someone else doesn't really scan

no, it doesn't...

but, in the principle of the thing, you still should be switching your vote off of me. If for no other reason than you gave me a lot of carp while I was sick and I put in clearly way more effort into this than you did and you aren't sick.

that is a logical fallacy. Allow me to explain why:

it is a strawman argument. You did put in more apparent effort in finding us a target today I put in apparent effort to come to the conclusion that you are a target before this post. Since in this post I went through the effort of quoting every relevant post from day 2 and explaining it to show why you didn't save the bandwagon on FE and did my damndest to use probabilistic math to show why the tested seer's claim against you should not be lightly dismissed, I think the "effort" contest can easily be said to not be in your favor. Thing is, how much effort you put into constructing your argument doesn't make it inherently more useful or powerful. There are absurdly wrong people every day who spend a lot of effort to prove that the earth is flat. That doesn't mean they're right. Them being sick when they put in the effort to gather their evidence doesn't make them more right. If anything, it means that they are not at 100% when they gathered it and their conclusion is more likely to be faulty than a healthy person who was able to more efficiently sift through the information to come to a conclusion.

In sum, I'm sick, vote for that guy because my reasons are better than yours for voting for me and that's what you asked for.

and if your reasons actually added up to better than a tested seer's claim, sure.

edit: @count dingdong: I know I said I'd drop it, but he specifically called me out, and I felt I had to answer him. I tried my best to keep this impersonal and not rise to the occasion to his comments that I felt were barbed and aimed at me. If you feel this post inappropriate, let me know and I'll delete it.

[Ramsus]

As for how you've "been treated," this is an adversarial game of suspicion and backstabbing. How exactly did you expect people to act?

I'm sorry, have you not read the rules?

The aim of this forum last I checked was to have people have fun, not feel personally attacked and insulted and belittled at every chance. You can ask other people for their opinions on what appropriate behavior is. Making others feel like people would rather they just left the forum entirely is probably not acceptable in anyone's mind but yours.

Planswalker, so in sum, you asked me to do something completely impossible, badgered me endlessly about it while giving off the false impression it was something that I could accomplish, and after I, feeling like complete **** and not having the energy to do so anyway, did so you..... didn't even care. At least you put effort into the reply but, really, your response set up a series of impossible walls between anything I can say and you deciding to not lynch me. If I said vote for Penguinator, you'd still vote for me because that's not an original surviving member, if I say vote for Grue Bait you still vote for me because testing Zar's seer claim apparently is worth less to you than lynching me, if I said to lynch Zar or Matthias because if they're both claiming seer it's likely one of them is a wolf (or both since I don't recall either of them giving us a single wolf yet), you'd decide to lynch me for wanting to lynch an untested seer. I can't say vote for &we since you're still acting under the assumption that Kalnray is the seer and scried &we as a villager. If I say lynch TigerFang (has he even voted recently) you'll say there's no particular reason to do so (and I'd agree I have no particular logic that would point to him since he's been so silent).

So yeah, you set up an impossible task because no matter what I said, you would discard in based on the assumption that Kalnray was both a seer and that I was not disguised and nothing I said could possibly have convinced you to act otherwise. Considering just how immensely ****ty I felt last night (and still today) and that I made it clear I was not feeling well, that was a complete **** move.

Edit: And of course, it should go without saying that providing proof of any sort that anyone was more likely a wolf than myself was an impossible task to start with considering how little information we have about anything in this game.

That shouldn't even have to be my goal. Establishing myself as unlikely to be a wolf is the only reasonable thing you can actually ask of me in this position. I gave you more than that and you still all spit it back in my face by basically summing up your opinions as "We gonna lynch you cuz you Ramsus."

Edit 2: Seriously, have you guys even had the thought enter you head of what things look like from my perspective? It looks like a bunch of people decided that the goal of the game was to treat me like **** and that winning was of secondary importance.

[planswalker]

Ramsus, you are interpreting my words in the most negative way possible.

I told you simply that I won't change my vote off you unless you can supply a better target. If I had thought a better target was out there, I'd have looked for it instead of accusing you at the start of the day. I never told you that I thought a better target was out there or that you'd be able to guarantee that I'd pick another target if you looked and put through effort to find it.

I only told you the only condition under which I would change targets. I never tried to badger you into finding one. All I've done is tell you the reason I've voted for you to be lynched, disagreed with your arguments, and given counter-arguments. When your initial tactics failed to sway me, you decided to try fulfilling the condition under which I said was the only way I'd change my vote. As TBF said, this would have been more effective if I hadn't had to spell out for you how to do so.

I am not a quest-giver giving you a task to do. I'm an opponent saying that the only way you'll convince me to go after someone else is to find someone else I'd rather target. I never told you "Ramsus, go dig through our backlog and find a new target for my vote. Then and only then will I not vote for you."

I told you "Making me think you're a less sure candidate for lynching doesn't do you any good if you can't show me some more sure than yourself." As you have succinctly pointed out, the town should stick to looking at the original players for now and none of the other five are more condemning than a tested seer pointing at you as a wolf. You being town that was unluckily disguised is the most probable scenario where you're not a wolf that I can see, and that one is damn unlikely.

I've gone by this game playing the odds and casting my vote where I felt it most likely to be a wolf. I've not always been right, but I've found more than one wolf this way. If Kalnray's claim hadn't been tested and proven, I'd probably have gunned for Zar Peter today to get him to cough up a testable scry target and gone after them. Unless something drastic changes in the night phase, I plan on testing his scry in the next day phase.

But when a claimed seer who's proven herself capable of pointing out one wolf accurately points at you, what exactly did you expect to happen? Me ignore the evidence because I have your word for it that she must be wrong? I have no way of knowing for sure if you're telling the truth or not, I thought your voting history was suspicious before she said a word (though hardly ironclad by itself), and the word from veteran players is that this type of reaction is your typical method for trying to allay suspicion of your alignment regardless of whether or not you really are a wolf, so I have nothing to go on there.

am I 100% sure that you are a wolf? no. Neither was I sure about FE or anyone else I've voted for. I am not now, and have never been a seer or other person capable of knowing whether or not someone is town/wolf with 100% accuracy. That's why I go with my best judgment and guesswork and the >90% chance that you're a wolf.

edit reply to your first edit: That sounds very spurious to me since, if we ignore seer claims and opinions on voting patterns, there's only a 1/3 chance of any of the original roles being a wolf. That means they're all "unlikely" to be wolves. Does that mean we shouldn't go after any of them because there's a chance we'll hit a non-wolf? By that same logic, wasn't it a bad move to vote to lynch anyone on day 1 since we're more likely to hit a non-wolf than a wolf?

I think I am misunderstanding the point you are trying to make with that edit, but that's what I'm getting from what you're saying there.

edit2: also, I never asked you to do anything. I only told you what it would take for you to change my mind. If you'd stopped and thought through the five original people left besides you, you'd quickly have realized that you weren't going to change my mind and could have saved yourself the effort. A tested seer pointing at you is hard to beat for a reason.

[Ramsus]

You're missing the essential point that I wasn't even asking not be lynched, simply one day later. It was inevitable that you were going to lynch me eventually (I'm rather realistically pessimistic about the way I get treated here), I just wanted to get to live one more day. Maybe this would be at the expense of someone else who was possibly a slightly less likely wolf than myself. However, none of those people have asked not to be lynched. Grue Bait hasn't even chimed in to defend himself, even when specifically asked to do so by just about every active player. Why does he, who doesn't even seem to care, deserve to live another day at my expense?

I'm not faulting you guys for deciding that I should be lynched, that happens. I'm faulting you all for deciding it has to be today, just so you guys can kick me in the nuts because you feel like kicking me in the nuts.

Edit: And I view it as just doing it to kick me in the nuts because it costs me a win but, as far as I know contributes in no way to anyone else gaining a win outside of the general original wolf/villager goals, which are in no way harmed by my lynch happening the next day.

[planswalker]

ah, okay, I see that I was indeed missing your essential point. This all comes back to you getting a second win today or not. That I understand.

I am not voting for you to be lynched because it would deny you a second win. I'm voting for you to be lynched because I'm reasonably sure you're a wolf and if you are and you're taken out, that means that the last original wolf is immediately put under pressure. Not killing you today means killing someone else today, and it will logically be another original town who'd be denied a win because of this. How many wins this does or doesn't give you doesn't change a thing at all. It's not that I enjoy denying you a win, it's that i think the wins are completely immaterial to voting. There is nothing personal about this. I believe I also voted on day 5 to lynch someone that was set up to get a win. It wasn't because I don't like them: it was because I don't think how many wins one gets should really come into play for whether or not to vote for you.

[Count Dingdong]

To everyone: quicktopic has been going through and auto-deleting posts with links in them. In future, links posted in QT will omit "www.quicktopic.com/". Apologies for inconvenience caused.

E.g. (for Otakuryuoga QT): link = [46/H/eb9kNcrmXzL]

------------

No changes in votes; still no Mayor votes. BUT!
somehow missed Nightpenguin's vote...

Current Votes:
Ramsus - 6
Grue Bait - 3

Following need to vote: Grue Bait, Eternis, Devmaar, Caprice, Chromasia, bladescape, C'nor

C'NOR MUST VOTE TODAY OR BE AUTOLYNCHD!

~14 hours left

-----------------------------

@Ramsus: Dial down w/ profanity (asterisk'd or not). Stay civil here... (know you haven't used them in recent posts, but want it out there just in case: please avoid that here, per forum rules) Thank you.

-------------------

Also, if matters at all, next public win for originals = start of day 11 (lasted through day/nights 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)

[usourselves&we]

&we... what? I'm "too loud" for you to not vote for me? I should shut up and..... let you keep your vote on me? Wtf kind of excuse is that supposed to be?

having not seen the words beyond this, you should take care to note that the vote had be crossed since the second post from this name on the day.
all people that had words in posts that we did not read all of were being 'loud' as we thought was said in our post.
any 'shut up' that we may have said (not even going to read our own post) was likely directed at our own post and no one else.

Edit: oh and seems later in that post in an edit you saw the point of the post. that is to say there was no point to the post (other than asking a few people to talk). you see that is mainly what we see when any and all people (not just you) have large posts that we may never read (posts that read in anger cruelty and all those other feelings we don't like to be privy to).

also please don't leave, you are liked, people just get hostile over a game for some reason or another and it is kind of confusing as to why that is, but it stops after a time does it not?

[gunnar11]

snip

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Let's examine that day in detail, shall we?

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super dark edited in a vote for FE AFTER many other posts. This is really an example of him trolling voting history, as he edited this post with a FE vote after many posts discussing this, giving an illusion of him being the first to vote for him. Count Dingdong's vote tallies don't account for his vote because he edited it in long after the fact.

TBF asked what the logic of defending TBF was, since he opposed someone who happened to be a mason.

I agreed with TBF's reasons and re-asserted that I still had my suspicions from day 1.

Devmaar thought we had a good point.

we reached lynch status before you posted day 2.

You were #5 to jump on the bandwagon.

Gunnar questioned why we want to lynch FE. He also called out Super Dark for random voting.

FE explained his vote from yesterday and asked people to explain why they voted for him today.
he voted for one of the people that voted against him, since there wasn't much else he could do.

I was the first to explain my reasoning, admitted it wasn't solid logic, and challenged him to find a better target. Emphasis on better.

Gunnar tried to muddy the waters.

I defend my reasoning, which boils down to "someone gonna get lynched. You're the most suspicious to me unless someone else gets pointed out."

Gunnar changes his vote to FE. That brings the total up to 5 people to lynch FE, no other competing bandwagon, and you still haven't explained your logic for voting for FE as of this time.

some back-and-forth chatter of little note happens, then:

Lex-kat votes for you because she also wants to be mayor.

yet another vote for FE and I haven't seen where you explain the reason to vote for FE.

After 6 (maybe 7, depending on if Super Dark edited in his vote by this point) votes and no other bandwagons presenting itself, he claims seer.

after he's already well over the lynch threshold with very little time left.

I ask if he has any scries we can test for this. I'm asking him to supply me with someone to switch my vote to.

he claims to have scried you and only you and have gotten interference...

which, since he turned out to be the devil and knew he was the devil, I see four possibilities for why he claimed to have scried you and got interference:

1. He told the truth, and your scry was interfered with. Most likely because the REAl seer also scried you. I guess people have been curious to know your alignment if this was true
2. He lied, he did scry you, and he got a result. It was wolf and he decided to say "interference" because he didn't want to point at a fellow wolf and give us a lynch target for day 3
3. He lied, and scried you as town. Since this isn't a useful result for a seer candidate, he didn't feel like giving the town a free scry off of him, so he claimed interference instead
4. He lied, and scried someone else instead. It wasn't a role that would help save his hide, so he decided to throw your name out as interference instead of giving town a free scry

In hindsight, I think #1 or #4 most likely. If he'd scried you as a wolf, he'd have likely thrown you under the bus to save his hide. If he'd scried you as a villager, I think he'd have likely claimed you were a wolf to get us to lynch a non-wolf that day and give him another night of scries.

still, I think in hindsight that it's most likely that he really was telling us the truth. He probably hoped the ring of truth about his scry result would give us pause.

I question how convenient that all is, and re-assert a 50/50 chance of FE being a wolf.

I assume that this here is where you defend that FE is a wolf?
I'll grant that this is a pretty good argument.
Given late (already 6/7 votes for him to be lynched, no other opposing candidates of real note)
there were 13 hours left when you gave this argument.
Don't let me sell you short: you did give the most solid argument for why we should lynch a seer claim. It just happened to be given after he was already basically doomed and there were no other candidates and very little time to change things. I'd hardly call that a rock-solid towntell. After all, unless there was an unseen and unheard throng of people that would have rushed at the last minute to vote for someone else with no clear second candidate already present, his fate was sealed.

Us chooses to believe FE in spite of all arguments to the contrary.

Zar Peter votes for you because... um...
you opposed Lex in the mayoral running that day?
I don't really know.
Still, this makes the second person to not vote for FE after his seer claim. Both of which are after you made your argument for lynching FE. Still not seeing where your argument changed the outcome in town's favor.

You oppose getting lynched just because Lex is running against you.
I've gotta admit you're consistent in defending yourself by criticizing the reasoning of your opposition. Not sure what that means, but you're consistent.

Tom the Mime doesn't vote for anyone and gives a prophecy that Count Dingdong ends up fulfilling.

A vote for super dark at the last minute.

bladescape effectively turns Super Dark into a possible last-minute bandwagon.

C'nor opposes lynching a seer claim. Instead of following the super dark bandwagon, she votes for you. Again, I don't see the logic of this claim. I guess it boils down to "you didn't claim seer and opposed Lex in the mayor election". The election that doesn't do anything yet.
Super Dark, C'nor and I have a discussion on the merits of voting to lynch and untestable seer claim.

Grue Bait jumps on the super dark bandwagon with no stated reasons.
1 hour and 22 minutes later, Count Dingdong closes voting and posts results.

Unless my count is off, FE was lynched by one vote over Super Dark.

every vote for FE happened before he even claimed seer, much less you gave your 1 post opposing it. While I'll grant that just one person out for FE changing their vote would have swung things to either Super Dark or executioner vote, you were not the only one to argue for lynching FE, you were not the most vocal, and you were very mysteriously silent once a credible bandwagon on someone else started picking up momentum at the last moment. Admittedly, you had less than a 12 hour window of opportunity to do so and thus it's just as likely you weren't on for that span as anything else.
The most you can really claim is that your argument was an example of "for want of a nail"; that is, if your small contribution hadn't been there, possibly someone else would have voted Super Dark/changed off of FE and changed the voting. The problem with this claim is that we have no evidence to say it did anything. The most likely conclusion is that your argument, despite being the most logical single post for FE's lynching, did nothing. You gave it with very little time left in the voting and no real likely-looking candidates at the time you gave it. If anything, a decently strong case could be made that your and my arguments for FE's lynching after his last-minute seer claim spawned the wave of other votes that nearly caused the FE bandwagon to be de-railed.

in summary, you did contribute to FE getting lynched. Your biggest contribution wasn't your arguments but your vote.

as plausible as this sounds, looking at all the voting from that day, the story doesn't really hold up. Everyone who voted for him did so before he gave a seer claim with less than a day left. It's very likely that most of them didn't log in and read through the backlog in time to do anything one way or the other.

Because my basis for accusing you isn't founded on any one single thing. It's the overall trend of your voting since day 2. Mostly, day 3 onward. However, not even your day 2 behavior is out of line for a cunning wolf who thought there was a chance of either looking very town or lynching the seer. I'll reiterate again that your gem of an argument happened late and after all the FE votes were already in.

it's not an ironclad defense for you being town. If I was a wolf, I likely would have done something just like that in your position. Especially since I didn't know I was really going to be voting for my own devil.



no, odds are we'd lynch super dark instead...

which we did end up doing soon after.



the issue at stake here isn't "do we have reason to think you're town?". The issue is at stake is "who seems most likely to be a wolf?"



IF he's a wolf. Your argument here hinges on this premise: you assume he is a wolf and can explain his actions in those terms.

this creates a bias in your logical reasoning, as you assume he is a wolf and then see if you can line up the evidence to match this conclusion.

A less biased premise is "I do not know if he is a wolf or not. Are his actions more like that of a wolf or a non-wolf?"

Since I myself am neither wolf nor town yet and find myself agreeing with him, I challenge your premise for your argument. I think you started with a faulty premise by assuming he was a wolf and doing your best to show the evidence that supports that.



I agree with you that calling for the baner to reveal himself isn't generally a wise idea. However, if the baner's about to be lynched with no other confirmed power roles on the table, it's reasonable to ask the person who's about to get lynched to claim a role if they have one so they can save themselves. Not really conclusively town or wolf, IMO.



can't claim to know his usual activity, as I'm still quite new to WW games. The argument has been made on earlier days that we know there are two original wolves left. We do not know if there are any new wolves or not. Odds are, there are wolves in the newcomers, but we don't know how many of what kind if at all. It makes more sense to focus on the two known quantities before chasing the unknown but probably present quantities.

Especially since the pool of possible candidates for the known quantities is much smaller than the pool for the unkown number of candidates.



... wait, after spending several edits to point at Penguinator, you suddenly switch who you urge us to lynch by saying target Grue Bait instead because a possible untested seer claims he is wolf?

I'll grant that the seer claim pointing at him is a good reason to vote for him, but is it a better reason than to vote for you?

You also have a seer claimant who pointed at you. One who's possibly the seer and not the fool. In fact, the seer claimant who pointed at you has already given us one correct scry.

Since Kalnray was a newcomer claiming seer, we have no reason to assume one seer claim being true means another has to be false, since, for all we know, they both are. Now, from a sheer probabilistic standpoint, let's examine the odds of her claim being true. I'll put it in a quote box labeled with her name so as to keep things clear.

to ensure there is a common understanding, I will use the model that probability 1 represents a guaranteed positive and probability 0 represents a guaranteed negative. I will also assume that she wasn't completely lying and at least thinks she is a seer, as giving us a testable claim without actually being able to scry at all is very anti-town. Since we know she was not a wolf (night-killed), that just doesn't square.

I also will assume that the disguiser role does not have a bias towards targeting any one player, as the only argument for it having a bias is both unquantied and coming from a source with self-interest in the base premise that you either are or are not a wolf. I am not qualified to make an estimate of that due to my inexperience and bias the other direction. If you seriously think that you are more likely to get disguised than your average bear, please give me a probability of you getting disguised as a wolf and I'll re-work the relevant odds to include that.

I will stick to the best of my ability to known probabilities and to avoid guessing at any unknowns without clear reason. In order to be able to analyze the fool, I will assume probability 0.25 for his accuracy while scrying, as I'm only in 1 other WW game and thus it is the only number I have to work with. If someone can supply me a more likely median probability, I'll re-work my calculations with that number.

If you or anyone else finds fault with my above premises or my below methodology, please calmly explain the error and I will re-evaluate my calculations.



Planswalker, I have done something constructive and found another target based on logic and patterns.

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Yes, you did something constructive based on logic and patterns... you pointed out the wolfishness of Penguinator, who is likely to get probed when we finally ferret out the last original wolf.

but the target you found to replace yourself on the chopping block was not Penguinator. the target you found was Zar Peter's untested seer claim that he also voted for the next day. That is another target yes, and you could accurately say that some logic and Zar Peter's voting patterns went into choosing it, but I don't see how this makes him a better target than you when an already tested seer claim has already painted you as a target.

You probably did ferret out the second best target to lynch today, but you haven't shown to me how this target is a better choice than you are.



yes, if you want me to change my vote, you'll need to supply me a target that I see as more likely to be a wolf than you are.



did you intend to word it so that I'm a liar and a promise-breaker if I don't side with you? Because that's how it's coming off to me. Which is a dirty tactic and a low blow.

however, since the target you supplied is not one that I see as more likely to be a wolf than you are, I am not going back on my word at all by saying that my vote stays.



does me thinking your untested seer's candidate not being more weighty than a tested seer's candidate qualify? If not, then I hope you will eventually forgive me for becoming an "oathbreaker".



no, it doesn't...



that is a logical fallacy. Allow me to explain why:

it is a strawman argument. You did put in more apparent effort in finding us a target today I put in apparent effort to come to the conclusion that you are a target before this post. Since in this post I went through the effort of quoting every relevant post from day 2 and explaining it to show why you didn't save the bandwagon on FE and did my damndest to use probabilistic math to show why the tested seer's claim against you should not be lightly dismissed, I think the "effort" contest can easily be said to not be in your favor. Thing is, how much effort you put into constructing your argument doesn't make it inherently more useful or powerful. There are absurdly wrong people every day who spend a lot of effort to prove that the earth is flat. That doesn't mean they're right. Them being sick when they put in the effort to gather their evidence doesn't make them more right. If anything, it means that they are not at 100% when they gathered it and their conclusion is more likely to be faulty than a healthy person who was able to more efficiently sift through the information to come to a conclusion.



and if your reasons actually added up to better than a tested seer's claim, sure.

snip
[/QUOTE]

This is quite the incredible analysis, planswalker. You really know how to analyze people, don't you?
Even so, I have to say you're wrong about the chances, so that part was unnecessary.

To Ramsus: I don't like to gang up on you, I really don't. It's just that, like planswalker said, you're the most likely to be a wolf atm, so I chose to lynch you. I didn't think about the wins you would get or not.
The moment you told us about it, though, I have to admit I was even more decided to lynch you. I had lost my win a day before I would've got it, and still am very sad about it.
Even so: There're 2 wolves to be destroyed. They are in the original roles, so there's no reason to target anyone outside of them. Someone is going to lose a win, and if that someone is a wolf I'd prefer it to be that way.

[planswalker]

This is quite the incredible analysis, planswalker. You really know how to analyze people, don't you?

thanks, I think. Kinda got the idea you were being sarcastic. Might just be the mood I'm in and if so, I apologize in advance.

This was my first time to try something like that. Figured if I stared at a large enough chunk of data, something would come of it.

Even so, I have to say you're wrong about the chances, so that part was unnecessary.

Would you care to elaborate? I'm not challenging whether or not they're correct, I'm trying to learn how I goofed them up so I can improve.

[TBFProgrammer]

I'm sorry, have you not read the rules?

The aim of this forum last I checked was to have people have fun, not feel personally attacked and insulted and belittled at every chance. You can ask other people for their opinions on what appropriate behavior is. Making others feel like people would rather they just left the forum entirely is probably not acceptable in anyone's mind but yours.

I've defended you in the past when others crossed that line. They haven't here. There has been nothing beyond the game and the particular strategy you are employing being dissected. No one is doing anything deliberately to insult you or aggravate you that I can see.

I'm sorry if you find my analysis of your playstyle frustrating, but the treatment you have received is within the boundary of competitive sportsmanship. Yes, it is a little harsh that we are insisting on lynching you when you are so close to a win, or continuously hammering our arguments concerning doing so, but that is solidly part of the game.

Lynching the most likely wolf comes before securing people's wins, even if we know they are town (a luxury you haven't achieved). Refuting the arguments of a suspected wolf to ensure they don't escape the lynch through the sympathy of others is also part of the game.

Edit 2: Seriously, have you guys even had the thought enter you head of what things look like from my perspective? It looks like a bunch of people decided that the goal of the game was to treat me like **** and that winning was of secondary importance.

Yeah, being lynched is kind of annoying. That's part of the game too. I haven't seen anyone treating you horribly though. Unless you are still on about missing the second win (or third, if you managed a personal win).

Of course, from our points of view, extending you an extra day would be us not trying to win, as best strategy dictates we do that to someone. How much worse would it be to be lynched under identical circumstances but if someone else had been scried as a wolf by Kalrany?

To make such a lynch under the current circumstances would essentially be to say: "We like Ramsus better, so despite the fact we are about 90% sure Ramsus is a wolf and Ramsus is an original spot, we're going to lynch you instead, and give the victory you've essentially earned already to Ramsus."

I won't do that.

[gunnar11]

It's not useful you put that in quotes xD
Also: I wasn't being sarcastic, I really meant it.

On night 6, there were 13 living people who were not clueless newcomer. This makes the probability of Grey Mage getting disguised that night 0.0769 (1/13). The probability of him not getting disguised is thus 0.9231 (12/13). Either way, she was seer, she scried either the role or the disguise correctly, which a seer has probability 1 of doing.

First of all: A disguiser is an original role, right?
That means that it shouldn't be taken into account. Grey Mage can't be a disguiser and a wolf at the same time. (Or is disguiser an evil role?)
This means that you have to count with 12 people instead of 13.
Second: Did you count the seer as one of those 13? Because if you did, you would have to substract one more, leaving it at 11 instead of 12/13

If I messed up, just say so, but even if we take into account the 13:

We happen to know the probability of Grey Mage being a wolf is 1, since it was revealed upon his death.

Technically, probabilities change with the knowledge you have, but that is quite a boring talk, and I will spare you it. Essentially you're right, theoretically you're not.

IF she was a fool with a probability of correct scry of 0.25, then she had the same odds of hitting a disguise and the same odds of the disguise being town.

if she was a seer, the probability of her scrying a Grey Mage as a wolf on night 6 is: 1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*[0.9231(no disguise)+0.0769(disguise)*0.5(wolf disguise)]=0.9615

The probability of her being a fool with a correct scry on a wolf on night 6 is: 0.25*1*[0.9231+0.0769*0.5]=0.2403

No no no no no no no no.
The thing is, you already know that he's a wolf. You can't take into account that he could be a villager in disguise, while at the same time taking into account that he's a werewolf (because we know that).
You're using Knowledge A to prove Knowledge A.
Better:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*[0.9231(no disguise)-(he isn't!)0.0769(disguise)]=0.8462
But that would still be using info in two ways.
Perfect:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*1(she sees him as a wolf)=1

A quarter of that for a fool.

The point I want to make is:
you use 4 factors in your calculations:

• Chance she is a seer [0.25 or 1]
• Chance he is a wolf [you take it for granted, 1]
• Chance he really is a wolf [you just took it for granted!, 0.9231??]
• Chance he is disguised [none really, he is a wolf, you just took it for granted!, 0.0769?????]

By the way, how did you get the factor 0.5?

if she's an equal chance of being assigned to be either role, the evidence heavily favors her being a seer since she successfully scried a wolf as a wolf on night 6. 4:1 in her favor. Before there's a significant chance of her being a fool with this result, the fool role would need to have at least a 50% chance of being correct. That would make the odds 3:1 of her being seer. It climbs up very steeply from there as the probability goes up to quickly surpassing 2:1 and approaching 1:1 as the probability of a fool's correct scry approaches 1. At less than 50%, the odds don't even increase from 4:1 to 3:1. I can more rigorously explain this point if requested.

request

This gives us the probability of her being a seer as 0.8 overall. 4 out of 5 times a seer/fool hypothetically scries a wolf as a wolf on night 6 and is proven right, it will be because that scrier is a seer.

Your claim as a villager disguised as a wolf and scried by the Kalnray as a wolf is thus:
probability of seer: 0.8
probability of fool: 0.2
there were 15 people that night. Probability of disguiser disguising you: 0.0666 (1/15)
probability of the disguiser not disguising you: 0.9333(14/15)
Probability that the disguise was wolf: 0.5
On day 9, 2/6 remaining original players are wolves. Probability you were randomly assigned wolf role among pool of original roles remaining: 0.3333
Probability you were assigned town role among pool of original roles remaining: 0.6667

Odds of you being disguised as a wolf:
0.0666(you were disguised for the scry on night 4)*0.5(the disguise was as a wolf)=0.0333

the probability of her scrying a you as a wolf on night 4 if you really are a wolf:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*0.8(her probability of being a seer)*[0.9333(no disguise)+0.0333(disguised as wolf)]+0.25(fool probability of correct scry)*0.2(her probability of being a fool)*[0.9333(no disguise)+0.0333(disguised as wolf)]=0.8216

the probability of her scrying you as a wolf on night 4 if you really are not a wolf:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*0.8(her probability of being a seer)*0.0333(disguised as wolf)+0.25(fool probability of correct scry)*0.2(her probability of being a fool)*0.0333(disguised as wolf)=0.0283

it is very unlikely in the extreme for us to find you being otherwise from the tested seer's results.

the probability that you are a villager, but were disguised as a wolf:
0.6667(you are villager)*0.0333(you were disguised as a wolf)=0.0222

Ok, two things: You can't use the chances taken on day 4 and combine them with day 9. As said, chances vary with the knowledge you have.
(do you know the story of the WIN A CAR shows? With the curtains/doors and when you get showed one the chance for the other increases?)

Second: when you say 0.03333 you mean 0.06666

Last but not least: you can't take the chance that she is a fool (0.2) and multiply it by the chance that she has a correct scry (0.25). These two chances are tied together. They change according to each other.

The chance she is correct while being a fool (0.2) will not decrease because she is a fool.



These are the things at first glance.
I know you meant good, but you can't calculate chances for something while using those chances to calculate it. If you get what I mean.

[Ramsus]

TBF, who asked you to dissect the way I play? And if you're going to do it why do you have to insult me by getting it wrong? It seems like every other game someone is doing this stuff to me instead of actually attacking the points I'm making because it's more convenient for them to just be attacking the way I make them or me personally (and then the narrator comes and yells at me for the hostility for daring to be insulted by others). I'm sick of stuff like that (and a large number of other things), that make playing here way too little fun for me for the amount effort I have to put in.

Gunnar, disguiser is a wolf role last I checked.

[Penguinator]

I apologize, Ramsus, since you've taken offense to my posts.

My reasoning for "pushing your lynch" are as follows: 1) I am really, really ticked at myself for almost letting Gray Mage slide. I changed my vote off of him, because I actually thought he was the Baner. Very stupid of me. In response to your accusations, I have not asked the Baner to claim. In fact, I am sure the Baner is dead, or Kalrany would still be here. Show me where you think I'm asking for a Baner claim, and I will explain. 2) I've talked myself out of getting lynched when scried wolf before. So I know it works, I know it can happen. I understand that you would like a second win. I haven't a single win as of yet, and I don't think I'm going to get any, 'cause I have yet to live more than three days in a blind game. 3) You were scried as a wolf. As mentioned before, I don't really want to let a wolf slide again. Perhaps you aren't a wolf. But the scry for the moment clinches it for me.
4) I've seen you do the desperate play as both town and wolf, so I have no idea what to make of it. For the time being, I'm leaning towards wolf.

As for "doing things you hate" intentionally, I was merely pointing out that I have seen this before. You were scried as wolf, and you were asking us not to lynch you despite that fact. And I took your point, the only point I recognized as such, the one about the devil, and did what I could to disprove it. Now, if I had just said "Let's kill Ramsus" and left it at that, I could see where you would get angry. But I did what I believed to fight against your claim of being responsible for the devil's lynch. I don't believe you had much to do with it, but I understand how you feel. I felt like the only one bothering with Gray Mage yesterday, and he turned out to be a wolf. If you look back, I probably had very little to do with it; in fact, I switched my vote off of him 'cause I foolishly took his claim seriously. Nowhere did I intend to make you angry, although "Ramsus' usual tricks" was rather poor word choice on my part.

Now, I'm not sure what you think is wolfish other than this supposed Baner claim. I pointed out earlier that "for all we know, the Baner is dead." I believe this to be true. I could be wrong. As for pushing the wagon, I have shown my reasons. Is this what I normally do? Not especially, no. Is it something I do as a wolf? Not really. I don't recall ever pushing a wagon before, town or wolf.

I have a lot of respect for you, Ramsus, but I'd rather not have a lynching seen as a personal attack.

[Grue Bait]

Grue Bait hasn't even chimed in to defend himself, even when specifically asked to do so by just about every active player. Why does he, who doesn't even seem to care, deserve to live another day at my expense?

'Cuz he's not raging about being in second place in the lynch. *munches popcorn*

As for the lack of a claim, it's because I've been pretty busy between classes, my own D&D campaign, and Halloween stuff. Apologies. I'm a fool. I know this because I scried someone, and then they died with a different role. Twice. So yeah, not bringing much to the table.

[Penguinator]

*Double take* That avatar... I thought you were Elemental.

[Grue Bait]

Sweet, it worked!

As for a vote, I'm going with a throwaway vote on Penguinator because voting for Ramsus only results in more anger.

[Ramsus]

voting for Ramsus only results in more anger

And it's seriously a question of why I'm no longer having fun here?

Penguinator, I think you know I'm not angry at you for voting for me but, for the "Ramsus tactics" thing.

[Eternis]

Executioner.
Also, can I vote Executioner?
If not, Me (Eternis).

[Chromasia]

Because I still feel like a clueless newcomer, I'll not be voting today. ^^

(Apologies, but o.O all this text - *easily swayed by written argument*)